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WILL MA: OK, guys, I
guess I'll get started.

9
00:00:24,250 --> 00:00:26,190
So I guess one
quick announcement

10
00:00:26,190 --> 00:00:31,259
is, so I guess everyone has
taken a look at the prizes.

11
00:00:31,259 --> 00:00:32,759
If you can take a
look at the prizes

12
00:00:32,759 --> 00:00:34,980
and, especially, if
you're near the top

13
00:00:34,980 --> 00:00:36,900
and expect yourself to
be getting some prizes.

14
00:00:36,900 --> 00:00:39,090
So we haven't announced
the final ordering yet,

15
00:00:39,090 --> 00:00:40,980
because it'll also
depend on the homework

16
00:00:40,980 --> 00:00:43,580
and then we'll decide how much.

17
00:00:43,580 --> 00:00:45,211
It'll mostly just
be number of points,

18
00:00:45,211 --> 00:00:46,710
but we might give
a bit of weighting

19
00:00:46,710 --> 00:00:50,400
to people who have like a high
points per game or something.

20
00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,040
But if you think you have
a decent chance of getting

21
00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:54,920
prizes, it'd be good
if you looked them

22
00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,680
over for when you research who
this Mike McDonald guy is, how

23
00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:00,030
much is his coaching worth--

24
00:01:00,030 --> 00:01:02,940
you can do that beforehand so
that people don't take forever

25
00:01:02,940 --> 00:01:06,550
deciding which prize
you want on Friday.

26
00:01:06,550 --> 00:01:08,966
OK, so I'm going to
get started then.

27
00:01:08,966 --> 00:01:11,340
So this is going to be the
last class I'm going to teach.

28
00:01:11,340 --> 00:01:15,030
So the final class,
on Friday, is

29
00:01:15,030 --> 00:01:18,480
going to be guess-lectured
by Bill Chen.

30
00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,420
So I want to go through an
in-depth combinatorial hand

31
00:01:22,420 --> 00:01:24,390
analysis of a cash-game hand--

32
00:01:24,390 --> 00:01:27,872
go very in depth on a hand
where you have deep stacks,

33
00:01:27,872 --> 00:01:30,330
and there's a lot of action,
and there's a lot of deduction

34
00:01:30,330 --> 00:01:31,830
that can take place.

35
00:01:31,830 --> 00:01:36,000
And then I'll finish with
some general poker stuff

36
00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,420
and answer any questions you
guys might have about the poker

37
00:01:39,420 --> 00:01:42,710
economy, how certain things
work, the history of poker--

38
00:01:42,710 --> 00:01:44,830
I'm happy to answer
whatever questions.

39
00:01:44,830 --> 00:01:48,270
OK, so first, I'll do something
more technical and more

40
00:01:48,270 --> 00:01:49,500
practical to the game.

41
00:01:49,500 --> 00:01:52,950
So an in-depth combinatorial
hand analysis in cash games.

42
00:01:52,950 --> 00:01:54,810
So I'm going to look
at the following hand.

43
00:01:54,810 --> 00:01:56,580
And the board is visible?

44
00:01:56,580 --> 00:01:57,240
It's good?

45
00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:58,760
OK.

46
00:01:58,760 --> 00:01:59,760
So this is a cash game.

47
00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:01,218
This is no longer
a tournament now.

48
00:02:01,218 --> 00:02:03,690
And everybody has
100 big blinds.

49
00:02:03,690 --> 00:02:07,630
So the blinds are $1 and $2,
and everyone starts with $200.

50
00:02:07,630 --> 00:02:09,509
So it's 100 big blinds.

51
00:02:09,509 --> 00:02:12,000
The cutoff opens near six,
and we have eight-seven

52
00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:13,410
suited on the button.

53
00:02:13,410 --> 00:02:15,690
And when it's this
deep stacked--

54
00:02:15,690 --> 00:02:17,130
so in a tournament,
this might not

55
00:02:17,130 --> 00:02:19,860
be a good situation to
call, because it just puts

56
00:02:19,860 --> 00:02:21,580
a lot of risk on you to bust.

57
00:02:21,580 --> 00:02:24,210
And also, you're not
really that deep stacked.

58
00:02:24,210 --> 00:02:26,280
But here, with
100 big blinds, we

59
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,400
can really realize a
lot of our implied odds

60
00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:31,047
given that we're
both in position,

61
00:02:31,047 --> 00:02:32,755
and we have a hand
that plays very well--

62
00:02:32,755 --> 00:02:35,730
a suited connector-- that can
make straights and flushes.

63
00:02:35,730 --> 00:02:40,100
So we decide to call, and
the big blind also calls.

64
00:02:40,100 --> 00:02:44,660
OK, so the flop is 10,
eight, six with a club,

65
00:02:44,660 --> 00:02:48,850
and the cutoff
continuation bet's 14.

66
00:02:48,850 --> 00:02:50,940
So one thing I'll
talk about first

67
00:02:50,940 --> 00:02:53,520
is, continuation bet sizing.

68
00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,100
So I said a bit
about this, but I

69
00:02:56,100 --> 00:02:57,900
wanted to talk a bit
more about bet sizing.

70
00:02:57,900 --> 00:02:59,942
And this is really just
a review of what I've

71
00:02:59,942 --> 00:03:01,150
been talking about all class.

72
00:03:01,150 --> 00:03:04,770
It's the same principles when
deciding your flop and turn bet

73
00:03:04,770 --> 00:03:05,460
sizing.

74
00:03:05,460 --> 00:03:07,890
So you don't want to bet so
small that your opponent has

75
00:03:07,890 --> 00:03:10,110
the odds to call with
anything, but you

76
00:03:10,110 --> 00:03:12,720
don't want to bet so big that
you are risking a lot of chips

77
00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:13,890
when you're bluffing.

78
00:03:13,890 --> 00:03:17,420
And also, if your raise size
commits your entire stack

79
00:03:17,420 --> 00:03:21,960
anyway, like if you're roughly,
let's say, betting 40% or more

80
00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,540
of your remaining chips, then
you might as well go all-in

81
00:03:24,540 --> 00:03:26,940
if it's the flop or the
turn because you probably

82
00:03:26,940 --> 00:03:28,782
aren't going to fold.

83
00:03:28,782 --> 00:03:30,240
Given that your
hand is good enough

84
00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,040
to put in 40% of your
chips, you probably

85
00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,110
have enough equity
that you're OK

86
00:03:34,110 --> 00:03:37,494
putting in 100% of your chips.

87
00:03:37,494 --> 00:03:39,660
Remember that raising your
bet gives them the option

88
00:03:39,660 --> 00:03:41,460
to reraise, so that's
always an incentive

89
00:03:41,460 --> 00:03:44,580
against raising a flop bet.

90
00:03:44,580 --> 00:03:46,400
The sizing should be
bigger on dry boards

91
00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:47,730
and smaller on dry boards.

92
00:03:47,730 --> 00:03:48,840
We talked about this.

93
00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:49,420
And you want to bet?

94
00:03:49,420 --> 00:03:51,336
Bet a bit bigger when
they're out of position.

95
00:03:51,336 --> 00:03:53,790
So he's kind of out of
position here against us,

96
00:03:53,790 --> 00:03:56,670
and he bets 14 into 19, which
is a reasonably big bet,

97
00:03:56,670 --> 00:03:57,960
but I think it's fine.

98
00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,390
So with our hand here,
eight-seven of clubs,

99
00:04:00,390 --> 00:04:02,940
I think we definitely
don't want to be folding.

100
00:04:02,940 --> 00:04:04,860
So let's talk about
the differences

101
00:04:04,860 --> 00:04:07,410
between raising and calling.

102
00:04:07,410 --> 00:04:12,910
So we decide to call, and
so what's the analysis?

103
00:04:12,910 --> 00:04:15,250
So we're definitely not folding.

104
00:04:15,250 --> 00:04:16,860
Raising, I think,
is a bit suicidal

105
00:04:16,860 --> 00:04:20,010
when we have a medium-strength
hand that can play well

106
00:04:20,010 --> 00:04:21,810
in position on a lot of turns.

107
00:04:21,810 --> 00:04:24,030
And we have a
backdoor flush draw;

108
00:04:24,030 --> 00:04:25,980
and our straight
draw's very legitimate

109
00:04:25,980 --> 00:04:27,960
when there is no
flush draw out there.

110
00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,080
So we decide to just call.

111
00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,700
We have to be a bit worried
about a big blind check-raise,

112
00:04:32,700 --> 00:04:34,410
but I think it's OK.

113
00:04:34,410 --> 00:04:36,780
It's not that big of a deal,
especially when there's

114
00:04:36,780 --> 00:04:37,930
no flush draw.

115
00:04:37,930 --> 00:04:41,100
So the big blind folds.

116
00:04:41,100 --> 00:04:46,880
And on the turn is the queen
of clubs, and he bets 30.

117
00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,850
OK, so this is sort of a tougher
decision now than the flop,

118
00:04:50,850 --> 00:04:51,840
I'd say.

119
00:04:51,840 --> 00:04:53,850
So let's analyze this.

120
00:04:53,850 --> 00:04:58,000
So he bets 30 into 47,
we've got 180 behind,

121
00:04:58,000 --> 00:04:59,730
which is about
four times the pot,

122
00:04:59,730 --> 00:05:02,509
and we've got a pretty
bad hand right now,

123
00:05:02,509 --> 00:05:04,050
but we still have
a pair, and we have

124
00:05:04,050 --> 00:05:06,570
lots of chances to hit a
straight, or hit a flush,

125
00:05:06,570 --> 00:05:08,980
or hit three of a
kind or hit two pairs.

126
00:05:08,980 --> 00:05:12,379
So tons of outs-- tons of
river cards that help us.

127
00:05:12,379 --> 00:05:13,920
And so what are the
benefits of each?

128
00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,770
OK, so I think it's
fairly clear we're

129
00:05:16,770 --> 00:05:19,330
not going to fold here
with this much equity.

130
00:05:19,330 --> 00:05:22,534
So what are the
benefits of calling?

131
00:05:22,534 --> 00:05:24,450
Well, we get to see the
river for sure, right?

132
00:05:24,450 --> 00:05:27,300
If the river's a
club, then we don't

133
00:05:27,300 --> 00:05:29,557
want to fold in
situations and not

134
00:05:29,557 --> 00:05:31,890
see the river when it could
be a club, which is the best

135
00:05:31,890 --> 00:05:34,364
card for us, essentially.

136
00:05:34,364 --> 00:05:36,030
Yeah, so we really
want to see the river

137
00:05:36,030 --> 00:05:39,960
because if we raise, then maybe
they could reraise all-in,

138
00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:41,910
and then we would have to fold.

139
00:05:41,910 --> 00:05:44,210
So that's one clear benefit.

140
00:05:44,210 --> 00:05:46,730
And another sort of
benefit is, we already

141
00:05:46,730 --> 00:05:48,120
have a pair to start with.

142
00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,637
So we don't really need
to bluff to win a hand.

143
00:05:50,637 --> 00:05:52,970
So this is something I've
been talking about a lot, too.

144
00:05:55,710 --> 00:05:58,950
If you don't need to raise
to win the hand because you

145
00:05:58,950 --> 00:06:01,020
already have a
pair, then there's

146
00:06:01,020 --> 00:06:02,579
a lot more incentive to call.

147
00:06:02,579 --> 00:06:04,120
So what are some
benefits of raising?

148
00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:07,130
Well, if you get him to fold
something like pocket jacks--

149
00:06:07,130 --> 00:06:09,060
if we think he might
have like pocket jacks--

150
00:06:09,060 --> 00:06:12,570
it can definitely get him
to fold some better hands.

151
00:06:12,570 --> 00:06:15,510
And we can bet the river and
win a bigger pot when we hit.

152
00:06:15,510 --> 00:06:18,630
And we can also maybe make some
bigger bluffs when we miss.

153
00:06:18,630 --> 00:06:22,140
So we'll go through a more
detailed analysis in a bit,

154
00:06:22,140 --> 00:06:25,560
but I like calling
in this situation.

155
00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:27,960
I think with a draw
that has no showdown

156
00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:31,500
value, like say I had nine-five
of clubs instead of eight-seven

157
00:06:31,500 --> 00:06:33,350
of clubs, which
has a pair, I think

158
00:06:33,350 --> 00:06:35,970
I would raise for two reasons.

159
00:06:35,970 --> 00:06:40,110
One is, I would need to
bluff the river anyway

160
00:06:40,110 --> 00:06:41,200
if I miss the river.

161
00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,710
So if I raise now, I
just give myself a chance

162
00:06:43,710 --> 00:06:45,300
to win the pot right now.

163
00:06:45,300 --> 00:06:49,680
And another benefit of
raising is that I can--

164
00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,320
I'm not that unhappy
if he goes all-in

165
00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:58,110
because my jaw is less strong
than eight-seven of clubs is.

166
00:06:58,110 --> 00:07:00,604
OK, and then maybe with a
hand like ace-jack of clubs,

167
00:07:00,604 --> 00:07:02,520
I would raise just because
we can maybe get it

168
00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,568
in against weaker flush draws.

169
00:07:05,568 --> 00:07:08,520
OK, so yeah, this is
a general principle

170
00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,550
that I haven't really talked
about for playing on flops

171
00:07:11,550 --> 00:07:14,280
and turns.

172
00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:16,126
And this sort of
goes along with most

173
00:07:16,126 --> 00:07:18,000
of the stuff we've talked
about in this class

174
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,180
but, in general, when you
have like the stone-cold nuts

175
00:07:21,180 --> 00:07:24,364
and when you have
weaker draws, you

176
00:07:24,364 --> 00:07:27,030
want to be the one-- you want to
be betting and raising in a way

177
00:07:27,030 --> 00:07:30,286
such that your opponent
gets the last bet in.

178
00:07:30,286 --> 00:07:33,750
So one person is always going
to go all-in first, right?

179
00:07:33,750 --> 00:07:36,420
If you're raising each other
or betting and raising,

180
00:07:36,420 --> 00:07:38,400
one person is going
to go on first,

181
00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:39,930
and the other person,
basically, has

182
00:07:39,930 --> 00:07:43,200
to decide whether to call or
fold and play for your stack.

183
00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:45,690
So if you have the
stone-cold nuts,

184
00:07:45,690 --> 00:07:49,801
then you want to be the person
having your opponent go all-in

185
00:07:49,801 --> 00:07:50,300
first.

186
00:07:50,300 --> 00:07:51,900
Because obviously, you
have a very easy decision.

187
00:07:51,900 --> 00:07:53,570
You just call and
you're going to win.

188
00:07:53,570 --> 00:07:56,250
On the other hand, if you
have like a weaker draw,

189
00:07:56,250 --> 00:07:57,961
which is, essentially,
your bluff--

190
00:07:57,961 --> 00:07:59,460
because we don't
want to be bluffing

191
00:07:59,460 --> 00:08:00,510
with absolutely nothing.

192
00:08:00,510 --> 00:08:01,926
We want to be
bluffing, basically,

193
00:08:01,926 --> 00:08:03,480
with our weaker draws.

194
00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,740
That's also an easy decision
because if, let's say,

195
00:08:05,740 --> 00:08:07,410
we have a gutshot straight draw.

196
00:08:07,410 --> 00:08:09,420
So we have four outs only.

197
00:08:09,420 --> 00:08:11,664
We're not that sad if
our opponent goes all-in

198
00:08:11,664 --> 00:08:13,080
on the flop or
all-in on the turn.

199
00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:14,070
We just fold.

200
00:08:14,070 --> 00:08:17,640
We have an easy
decision; whereas if we

201
00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:19,615
have a more vulnerable
good hand-- like you

202
00:08:19,615 --> 00:08:22,780
have top pair with a
medium kicker, then

203
00:08:22,780 --> 00:08:23,890
it's a tough decision.

204
00:08:27,180 --> 00:08:29,430
If our opponent goes all-in,
we have a tough decision.

205
00:08:29,430 --> 00:08:30,590
We're not sure what to do.

206
00:08:30,590 --> 00:08:32,419
And same if we have a
stronger draw-- like

207
00:08:32,419 --> 00:08:35,010
say we have a flush draw,
and we have nine outs,

208
00:08:35,010 --> 00:08:36,990
and then our opponent
goes all-in on the flop,

209
00:08:36,990 --> 00:08:40,500
and we have like 1.61
odds to call or something.

210
00:08:40,500 --> 00:08:42,270
It's a difficult decision.

211
00:08:42,270 --> 00:08:45,052
And so in these
hands, you definitely

212
00:08:45,052 --> 00:08:46,510
want to-- you
generally want to bet

213
00:08:46,510 --> 00:08:49,410
and raise in a way that allows
you to get the last bet in.

214
00:08:49,410 --> 00:08:52,070
Because with a stronger
draw, your opponent

215
00:08:52,070 --> 00:08:53,280
gets to make a decision.

216
00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,187
But even if they have the
nuts, you still have nine outs.

217
00:08:56,187 --> 00:08:57,770
And with a more
vulnerable good hand--

218
00:08:57,770 --> 00:08:59,353
I mean, if your
opponent has the nuts,

219
00:08:59,353 --> 00:09:01,230
I guess you're kind
of dead, but you're

220
00:09:01,230 --> 00:09:03,270
sort of protecting the
times you go all-in

221
00:09:03,270 --> 00:09:04,740
with your stronger draws.

222
00:09:04,740 --> 00:09:07,710
So following that principle,
I decide to just call here

223
00:09:07,710 --> 00:09:11,760
because if I raise, then I have
to make a decision when he goes

224
00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:12,750
all-in--

225
00:09:12,750 --> 00:09:15,930
whether to call with my
medium-strength hand and pretty

226
00:09:15,930 --> 00:09:17,491
good draw.

227
00:09:17,491 --> 00:09:21,130
OK, so we call, and the
river's an ace of spades.

228
00:09:21,130 --> 00:09:26,500
So we completely miss, and
our opponent checks to us.

229
00:09:26,500 --> 00:09:28,640
So we decide to bluff
the river for 70.

230
00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,380
And this is sort of the main
decision I want to analyze,

231
00:09:31,380 --> 00:09:34,700
and it's going to be quite
a complicated decision.

232
00:09:34,700 --> 00:09:36,970
So let's do some quick analysis.

233
00:09:36,970 --> 00:09:39,400
So yes, we do have
some chances of winning

234
00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:40,449
with our pair of eights.

235
00:09:40,449 --> 00:09:42,490
So maybe you can make a
case that there's no need

236
00:09:42,490 --> 00:09:44,440
to bluff because
we do have a pair,

237
00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:46,600
but there's a lot
of reasons to bluff.

238
00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,870
So one is, there's a lot of
higher cards on the board now.

239
00:09:49,870 --> 00:09:52,710
The pair of eights-- they
looked pretty good on the flop,

240
00:09:52,710 --> 00:09:56,230
but now it's a lot worse after
a queen turn and an ace river.

241
00:09:56,230 --> 00:09:58,750
So we can get him
to fold a queen.

242
00:09:58,750 --> 00:10:01,090
He can have a queen, and
he could very willingly

243
00:10:01,090 --> 00:10:03,580
be able to fold it.

244
00:10:03,580 --> 00:10:05,660
Also, the pot is big.

245
00:10:05,660 --> 00:10:07,420
They bet the flop
and the turn, and we

246
00:10:07,420 --> 00:10:08,720
called the flop and the turn.

247
00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:12,250
So both ranges are just very
strong because so much money

248
00:10:12,250 --> 00:10:13,340
has already gone in.

249
00:10:13,340 --> 00:10:16,690
So a pair of eights
is not so good.

250
00:10:16,690 --> 00:10:18,970
If you knew that he had
two random cards, sure,

251
00:10:18,970 --> 00:10:21,340
a pair of eights will win a
decent percent of the time.

252
00:10:21,340 --> 00:10:23,298
But when you know you're
up against a hand that

253
00:10:23,298 --> 00:10:26,020
was willing to bet the
flop and bet the turn,

254
00:10:26,020 --> 00:10:28,780
it's less likely the
pair of eights is good.

255
00:10:28,780 --> 00:10:31,390
And then, the ace is
always a scary card.

256
00:10:31,390 --> 00:10:33,430
And another advantage
of bluffing is--

257
00:10:33,430 --> 00:10:35,390
this is why position
is so great--

258
00:10:35,390 --> 00:10:37,930
especially when it's deep
stacked in a cash game.

259
00:10:37,930 --> 00:10:41,610
We're in position, and we know
that he checked the river.

260
00:10:41,610 --> 00:10:43,480
So maybe he's trapping
with like king-jack,

261
00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,537
but it's more likely than not
that it's a sign of weakness

262
00:10:46,537 --> 00:10:47,620
that he checked the river.

263
00:10:47,620 --> 00:10:52,760
So we could try to
bluff him off his hand.

264
00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:54,779
OK, so what about
river bet sizing?

265
00:10:54,779 --> 00:10:56,570
So okay, so one thing
is whether the bluff.

266
00:10:56,570 --> 00:10:58,640
Two, is if you bluff,
how much do you bet?

267
00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:02,277
So I decided to bet 70 into 107.

268
00:11:02,277 --> 00:11:04,360
And so what are the things
to consider when you're

269
00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,680
deciding your river bet sizing?

270
00:11:06,680 --> 00:11:09,410
So one is, there's no more
cards to come on the river.

271
00:11:09,410 --> 00:11:11,984
So in some sense,
there's less of a worry

272
00:11:11,984 --> 00:11:13,900
to betting really, really
small, because there

273
00:11:13,900 --> 00:11:17,000
is no such thing as letting
your opponent see a draw.

274
00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,040
But it still has a disadvantage.

275
00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,860
Like if your opponent checks
to you and you bet small,

276
00:11:21,860 --> 00:11:24,144
it still does give them
the option to check-raise.

277
00:11:24,144 --> 00:11:26,060
So that is one thing you
worry about if you're

278
00:11:26,060 --> 00:11:27,800
trying to bet really small.

279
00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,690
And another thing is,
you should bet big

280
00:11:29,690 --> 00:11:31,520
if your hand is polarized.

281
00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,730
By polarized I mean, you
either have the stone-cold nuts

282
00:11:34,730 --> 00:11:35,630
or you have a bluff.

283
00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,470
Basically, if you bet small
and your range is polarized,

284
00:11:41,470 --> 00:11:44,420
your opponent can just call
with a very wide range of hands

285
00:11:44,420 --> 00:11:45,980
because their odds are too good.

286
00:11:45,980 --> 00:11:49,490
By betting big, you give your
opponent worst odds to call,

287
00:11:49,490 --> 00:11:54,230
and since you have a stone-cold
bluff some percent of the time,

288
00:11:54,230 --> 00:11:56,670
you don't want your opponent
to have the odds to call

289
00:11:56,670 --> 00:11:59,670
with like third pair.

290
00:11:59,670 --> 00:12:02,640
OK so, it doesn't
matter what they

291
00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:04,710
did, because our
decision is betting 70.

292
00:12:04,710 --> 00:12:06,530
OK, so now what I
sort of want to do

293
00:12:06,530 --> 00:12:08,420
is, a lot happened
this hand, right?

294
00:12:08,420 --> 00:12:12,180
We know they raised the
preflop, bet flop, bet turn,

295
00:12:12,180 --> 00:12:13,310
checked river.

296
00:12:13,310 --> 00:12:16,620
So in some sense, we have
a ton of information.

297
00:12:16,620 --> 00:12:19,280
So in the tournaments that you
play, maybe a hand like this

298
00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,210
doesn't show up that
often because often it's

299
00:12:21,210 --> 00:12:24,980
just an all-in preflop, and you
can't really deduce that much

300
00:12:24,980 --> 00:12:26,210
about your opponent's hand.

301
00:12:26,210 --> 00:12:29,640
It's just like, he has the
top 30% of hands or something.

302
00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,240
But here, we can actually
do a lot of deduction.

303
00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:36,290
So let's replay the hand from
our opponent's perspective

304
00:12:36,290 --> 00:12:39,780
and sort of exploitatively
put them on a range.

305
00:12:39,780 --> 00:12:42,000
So let's go put ourselves
in our opponent's shoes

306
00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,580
and consider all the
actions they did.

307
00:12:44,580 --> 00:12:47,220
So I'm going to use
exploitative analysis here.

308
00:12:47,220 --> 00:12:49,190
So there are some
flaws with this.

309
00:12:49,190 --> 00:12:51,740
We are sort of
arrogantly assuming

310
00:12:51,740 --> 00:12:53,570
we're one step ahead
of our opponent--

311
00:12:53,570 --> 00:12:56,030
we can build a mathematical
model for our opponent.

312
00:12:56,030 --> 00:12:58,100
But still, this is a
useful exercise even

313
00:12:58,100 --> 00:12:59,900
though, yes, there are flaws.

314
00:12:59,900 --> 00:13:01,580
Maybe he's one step ahead of us.

315
00:13:01,580 --> 00:13:03,680
Maybe there's flaws in
our probabilistic model.

316
00:13:03,680 --> 00:13:06,380
But let's just assume for
the sake of the exercise

317
00:13:06,380 --> 00:13:08,120
that we can do this pretty well.

318
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:13,460
OK, so first of all, preflop,
what's our opponent's range?

319
00:13:13,460 --> 00:13:16,340
Let's just say, roughly,
he's opening from the cutoff.

320
00:13:16,340 --> 00:13:18,680
Let's say he's opening
about 30% of hands.

321
00:13:18,680 --> 00:13:21,440
I think that's about reasonable
for like an average player,

322
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:23,990
and I think it's consistent
with the guidelines

323
00:13:23,990 --> 00:13:25,270
I gave in the first lecture.

324
00:13:25,270 --> 00:13:29,840
So this includes any pair, any
suited ace, any two Broadway

325
00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,010
cards, which are
cards 10 and higher.

326
00:13:32,010 --> 00:13:35,390
It includes suited hands as
bad as five-three suited.

327
00:13:35,390 --> 00:13:37,580
This is maybe one difference
between cash games

328
00:13:37,580 --> 00:13:40,370
and tournaments, where
five-three suited

329
00:13:40,370 --> 00:13:43,460
is a pretty bad hand in
tournaments when it's so short;

330
00:13:43,460 --> 00:13:45,860
but when it's 100
big blinds deep,

331
00:13:45,860 --> 00:13:47,930
a hand like five-three
suited is a lot better

332
00:13:47,930 --> 00:13:50,980
than a hand like 10-8 offsuit.

333
00:13:50,980 --> 00:13:52,730
So yeah, so it includes
five-three suited,

334
00:13:52,730 --> 00:13:55,940
but not like nine-eight
off or like king-seven off,

335
00:13:55,940 --> 00:13:59,840
which are just terrible hands
when it's 100 big blinds deep.

336
00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,360
So OK, so what's our
opponent's range here?

337
00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,410
So they decided to
continuation the bet.

338
00:14:05,410 --> 00:14:09,200
They continuation bet into
the flop against two players

339
00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,020
after the big blind check.

340
00:14:12,020 --> 00:14:14,510
So what can we put him on?

341
00:14:14,510 --> 00:14:16,850
OK, so this is a
complicated analysis,

342
00:14:16,850 --> 00:14:19,070
and you can't really do
this during the game itself,

343
00:14:19,070 --> 00:14:21,620
but it's very useful to
do it after the hand.

344
00:14:21,620 --> 00:14:23,570
So let's review
the factors of why

345
00:14:23,570 --> 00:14:26,060
a player would continuation
bet and then consider

346
00:14:26,060 --> 00:14:29,390
why he continuation bets.

347
00:14:29,390 --> 00:14:32,200
OK, so this is also
sort of a review

348
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:33,440
class since the last class.

349
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,777
So what are the incentives
for continuation betting?

350
00:14:35,777 --> 00:14:37,610
Well, your hand is good
enough that it beats

351
00:14:37,610 --> 00:14:38,776
most of their calling hands.

352
00:14:38,776 --> 00:14:42,839
So you're betting for value or
your showdown value is poor,

353
00:14:42,839 --> 00:14:43,880
but you have some equity.

354
00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:44,780
You have some backdoor equity.

355
00:14:44,780 --> 00:14:46,490
You have some
overcards or draws,

356
00:14:46,490 --> 00:14:48,860
and you're,
essentially, bluffing.

357
00:14:48,860 --> 00:14:51,560
Another incentive is, you're
out of position like he is,

358
00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:53,660
and it's not like he
can see a free turn

359
00:14:53,660 --> 00:14:57,380
card by checking because I
can still bet if he checks.

360
00:14:57,380 --> 00:15:01,490
So you want to bet-- few
opponents, you want to bet.

361
00:15:01,490 --> 00:15:03,990
Incentives against
continuation betting--

362
00:15:03,990 --> 00:15:06,710
one is, your hand is
so dominant that you

363
00:15:06,710 --> 00:15:09,210
need to give him a turn card
to hope that he improves.

364
00:15:09,210 --> 00:15:10,310
So this is like the trap--

365
00:15:10,310 --> 00:15:12,137
the slow play.

366
00:15:12,137 --> 00:15:14,470
You have decent showdown
value, but not amazing showdown

367
00:15:14,470 --> 00:15:17,096
value-- so like, middle pair.

368
00:15:17,096 --> 00:15:18,470
You don't want a
continuation bet

369
00:15:18,470 --> 00:15:21,590
if you have like zero equity
on a reasonably dry board

370
00:15:21,590 --> 00:15:24,050
like this one.

371
00:15:24,050 --> 00:15:26,236
And there's too many
people for you to fold out

372
00:15:26,236 --> 00:15:28,610
or-- like you're in position,
and you can see a free turn

373
00:15:28,610 --> 00:15:29,380
by checking.

374
00:15:29,380 --> 00:15:31,400
So there's a lot of
things but, still,

375
00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,330
let's look at the
situation again keeping

376
00:15:33,330 --> 00:15:34,580
some of those factors in mind.

377
00:15:34,580 --> 00:15:38,544
He continuation bet into 10,
eight, six rainbow, which

378
00:15:38,544 --> 00:15:39,710
means three different suits.

379
00:15:44,430 --> 00:15:49,857
OK, so actually, before
I show this slide,

380
00:15:49,857 --> 00:15:51,440
I'm going to use the
annotate feature,

381
00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:56,010
and we'll try to write
on here what hands we

382
00:15:56,010 --> 00:15:56,820
think he can have.

383
00:15:56,820 --> 00:15:58,440
So this is going
to take a while,

384
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,140
but I plan on spending
the next 20, 25

385
00:16:01,140 --> 00:16:02,470
minutes discussing this hand.

386
00:16:02,470 --> 00:16:05,360
OK, so does someone want
to say a hand that you

387
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:07,667
think is in this range at
this point in the hand?

388
00:16:07,667 --> 00:16:10,000
Pretend we don't know what
he's going to do on the turn.

389
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,030
Yeah, just at this
point in the hand,

390
00:16:12,030 --> 00:16:15,750
can someone tell me a hand
you think is in his range?

391
00:16:15,750 --> 00:16:16,366
Yeah?

392
00:16:16,366 --> 00:16:17,674
AUDIENCE: Ace-jack.

393
00:16:17,674 --> 00:16:19,350
WILL MA: OK, yeah, ace/jack.

394
00:16:19,350 --> 00:16:21,442
OK, I think that's reasonable.

395
00:16:21,442 --> 00:16:22,900
It's actually, I
think, a bit weak.

396
00:16:22,900 --> 00:16:27,870
But let's say like ace/jack
suited with a backdoor flush

397
00:16:27,870 --> 00:16:28,440
draw.

398
00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:29,981
OK, I'll write down
ace-jack for now.

399
00:16:29,981 --> 00:16:31,984
OK, so someone go and
tell me another hand.

400
00:16:31,984 --> 00:16:32,484
Yeah?

401
00:16:32,484 --> 00:16:33,609
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] pair.

402
00:16:33,609 --> 00:16:35,540
Maybe 9-10, 10-jack suited?

403
00:16:35,540 --> 00:16:36,640
Ace-10?

404
00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,750
WILL MA: OK, ace-10--

405
00:16:39,750 --> 00:16:43,470
sure, jack-10-- 10-9--

406
00:16:43,470 --> 00:16:45,000
OK.

407
00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:48,697
Someone want to tell me
another type of hand maybe?

408
00:16:48,697 --> 00:16:49,196
Yeah?

409
00:16:49,196 --> 00:16:50,680
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]
pocket jacks?

410
00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:50,990
WILL MA: OK, good.

411
00:16:50,990 --> 00:16:51,795
Pocket jacks, yeah.

412
00:16:51,795 --> 00:16:53,520
So that's a clear value hand.

413
00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:59,480
Someone want to tell me
another type of hand?

414
00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,130
AUDIENCE: What about queen-jack?

415
00:17:01,130 --> 00:17:01,590
WILL MA: Queen-jack.

416
00:17:01,590 --> 00:17:02,350
OK, that's a good idea.

417
00:17:02,350 --> 00:17:03,350
Yeah, that's a good one.

418
00:17:03,350 --> 00:17:06,420
So Queen-jack I think is
one of the best draws--

419
00:17:06,420 --> 00:17:10,225
not the best draw-- what is
the best draw, would you say?

420
00:17:10,225 --> 00:17:12,909
AUDIENCE: Queen-jack of clubs?

421
00:17:12,909 --> 00:17:15,450
WILL MA: Queen-jack of clubs,
yeah, but queen of clubs only--

422
00:17:15,450 --> 00:17:17,207
it's not the best
straight draw, right?

423
00:17:17,207 --> 00:17:17,790
Yeah, what's--

424
00:17:17,790 --> 00:17:19,000
AUDIENCE: Jack-nine.

425
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:20,041
WILL MA: Yeah, jack-nine.

426
00:17:20,041 --> 00:17:22,589
Jack-nine or queen-nine.

427
00:17:22,589 --> 00:17:24,165
I wrote some hands here.

428
00:17:24,165 --> 00:17:28,440
OK, jack-nine, or queen-nine,
or like five-seven.

429
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:29,600
OK.

430
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:31,230
AUDIENCE: One pair of sixes.

431
00:17:31,230 --> 00:17:31,940
Is it possible?

432
00:17:31,940 --> 00:17:32,920
WILL MA: Pocket sixes?

433
00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:33,150
AUDIENCE: Yeah.

434
00:17:33,150 --> 00:17:33,990
WILL MA: Yeah, yeah,
OK, that's good.

435
00:17:33,990 --> 00:17:35,220
So I'll write that down.

436
00:17:35,220 --> 00:17:37,257
So pocket sixes, good.

437
00:17:37,257 --> 00:17:39,090
OK, here's a question,
what do you guys want

438
00:17:39,090 --> 00:17:45,840
to put him on if he has a
really, really good hand?

439
00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:47,280
So this is open ended.

440
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:48,780
I didn't come with
a [INAUDIBLE]..

441
00:17:48,780 --> 00:17:52,080
You guys want to assume that
he checks with pocket 10s

442
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,540
and like nine-seven--
basically the absolute best

443
00:17:54,540 --> 00:17:56,520
hands on this board to trap us?

444
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:58,277
Or do you want to
assume that he bets?

445
00:18:01,801 --> 00:18:02,300
Yeah?

446
00:18:02,300 --> 00:18:03,924
AUDIENCE: I think if
he has nine-seven,

447
00:18:03,924 --> 00:18:06,260
he'd probably bet because
someone might get a better

448
00:18:06,260 --> 00:18:07,386
straight if he doesn't bet.

449
00:18:07,386 --> 00:18:09,426
WILL MA: OK, yeah that's
a reasonable assumption.

450
00:18:09,426 --> 00:18:12,140
I think it can go either way
with nine-seven and like pocket

451
00:18:12,140 --> 00:18:13,040
10s--

452
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:14,450
depending on our opponent.

453
00:18:14,450 --> 00:18:16,125
Pocket sixes, I
think, is a clear bet,

454
00:18:16,125 --> 00:18:17,270
whereas pocket 10s is not.

455
00:18:17,270 --> 00:18:19,790
Because pocket 10s--
you're taking away so many

456
00:18:19,790 --> 00:18:22,050
of the top hands
from your opponents,

457
00:18:22,050 --> 00:18:25,950
whereas pocket sixes just gets
so much value when you bet.

458
00:18:25,950 --> 00:18:29,180
OK, so roughly speaking,
I sort of categorized

459
00:18:29,180 --> 00:18:31,950
all the hands he could
have into five categories.

460
00:18:31,950 --> 00:18:33,695
So the first-- the
top is hands that

461
00:18:33,695 --> 00:18:36,500
are so good that he checks
to trap or check-raise.

462
00:18:36,500 --> 00:18:38,090
The second category
is like the hands

463
00:18:38,090 --> 00:18:40,420
that are good but not
that good-- he value bets.

464
00:18:40,420 --> 00:18:42,010
Then it's like
medium-strength hands

465
00:18:42,010 --> 00:18:45,389
that he checks to check-call.

466
00:18:45,389 --> 00:18:47,430
So this doesn't agree with
exactly what we wrote,

467
00:18:47,430 --> 00:18:48,013
but that's OK.

468
00:18:48,013 --> 00:18:49,910
But this is just roughly--

469
00:18:49,910 --> 00:18:53,031
and then the next category
is hands that he bluffs.

470
00:18:53,031 --> 00:18:55,530
And then the last category is
hands that he just check-folds

471
00:18:55,530 --> 00:18:56,738
because they have no equity--

472
00:18:56,738 --> 00:18:59,240
like pocket threes, where he
would just give up the hand.

473
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:02,631
So we basically crossed
off these three categories

474
00:19:02,631 --> 00:19:04,130
because with these
three categories,

475
00:19:04,130 --> 00:19:07,940
he would check, whereas the
top one, he's checking to trap;

476
00:19:07,940 --> 00:19:10,070
the second one, he's
checking for a showdown;

477
00:19:10,070 --> 00:19:11,927
and the last one, he's
checking to give up.

478
00:19:11,927 --> 00:19:13,760
And then the two types
of hands he's betting

479
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:19,760
are, essentially, value bets
and like draws or bluffs.

480
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,420
OK, so now let's consider
the situation on the turn.

481
00:19:25,850 --> 00:19:29,390
OK, so once again, let's
consider his incentives first

482
00:19:29,390 --> 00:19:31,521
for betting again on the turn.

483
00:19:31,521 --> 00:19:33,020
Sorry if this is a
bit hard to read.

484
00:19:33,020 --> 00:19:41,320
Maybe I should do it on
notepad so that the annotate

485
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:42,000
isn't annoying.

486
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:46,670
Sorry, just give me a sec.

487
00:19:56,918 --> 00:20:00,030
OK, so what are the incentives
for betting again on the turn?

488
00:20:00,030 --> 00:20:02,280
So one is, you bet a good
hand for value on the flop,

489
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,680
and your hand is still
good on the turn.

490
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:06,320
So you're getting
for more value.

491
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,730
Two is, you bluffed a
speculative hand on the flop

492
00:20:08,730 --> 00:20:10,380
and now you either
hit the turn--

493
00:20:10,380 --> 00:20:13,260
like the queen helped you--
so like if you had jack-nine

494
00:20:13,260 --> 00:20:16,080
or you improved your draw--

495
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,990
or like an overcard to the
board came, which was the case,

496
00:20:18,990 --> 00:20:22,350
and maybe you thought bluffing
the turn could be good.

497
00:20:22,350 --> 00:20:25,020
So OK, so he bet the turn.

498
00:20:25,020 --> 00:20:27,210
OK, so let's maybe
put the hands we think

499
00:20:27,210 --> 00:20:29,670
he could have into PokerStove.

500
00:20:29,670 --> 00:20:32,280
So yeah, I think that's
the easiest way to do it.

501
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:33,480
OK, so let's do this.

502
00:20:36,830 --> 00:20:38,570
OK, so roughly speaking--

503
00:20:38,570 --> 00:20:39,580
can everyone see this?

504
00:20:39,580 --> 00:20:42,070
This is easy enough
to see, right?

505
00:20:42,070 --> 00:20:44,080
OK, so let's do this.

506
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:44,840
So bear with me.

507
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,700
This is a meticulous exercise.

508
00:20:47,700 --> 00:20:51,780
OK, so let's say preflop, 30%--

509
00:20:51,780 --> 00:20:53,480
OK, this is about reasonable.

510
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,720
Actually, let me give
him a few more pairs.

511
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:57,910
I'll take away ace-six off.

512
00:20:57,910 --> 00:21:01,560
Let's say he goes
suited connectors down

513
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,935
to five-four suited,
suited one gappers down

514
00:21:04,935 --> 00:21:08,820
to five-three suited--
suited two gappers.

515
00:21:08,820 --> 00:21:11,700
So suited two gappers
means suited cards

516
00:21:11,700 --> 00:21:14,650
that are three
apart, essentially.

517
00:21:14,650 --> 00:21:17,760
Yeah, you have like eight-five
suited, something like this.

518
00:21:20,437 --> 00:21:22,020
Something like this
is fine, probably,

519
00:21:22,020 --> 00:21:23,760
but let's say he
plays 10-6 suited.

520
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,390
OK, something like this--

521
00:21:25,390 --> 00:21:28,476
maybe take away some of
the worst offsuit hands.

522
00:21:28,476 --> 00:21:29,600
OK, so something like this.

523
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:30,180
OK, good.

524
00:21:30,180 --> 00:21:31,530
So on the flop, what happened?

525
00:21:31,530 --> 00:21:34,770
On the flop-- we said, OK,
so let's eliminate hands.

526
00:21:34,770 --> 00:21:35,835
What can we eliminate?

527
00:21:35,835 --> 00:21:38,795
So this is his entire range
of possibilities, preflop.

528
00:21:38,795 --> 00:21:40,950
OK, so on the flop,
we're going to eliminate

529
00:21:40,950 --> 00:21:45,150
pocket twos, threes, fours, and
fives because he just gives up.

530
00:21:45,150 --> 00:21:46,620
Pocket sevens and
nines we're going

531
00:21:46,620 --> 00:21:49,920
to eliminate because we're
going to assume he checks.

532
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:55,375
Five-three is bad enough
we can assume he gives up.

533
00:21:55,375 --> 00:22:03,060
Let me just display the
flop so that we can see.

534
00:22:03,060 --> 00:22:05,190
OK, so what else?

535
00:22:05,190 --> 00:22:07,229
OK, so let's go
through everything.

536
00:22:07,229 --> 00:22:08,520
I'll deal with this a bit fast.

537
00:22:11,210 --> 00:22:12,977
OK, let's say all
the middle pairs--

538
00:22:12,977 --> 00:22:13,810
he's going to check.

539
00:22:13,810 --> 00:22:16,810
So I'm going to remove most
of the hands with an eight

540
00:22:16,810 --> 00:22:17,310
in them--

541
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,410
yeah, so ace-eight, king-eight,
queen-eight, jack, OK,

542
00:22:22,410 --> 00:22:23,493
so 10-8 he's going to bet.

543
00:22:23,493 --> 00:22:25,790
AUDIENCE: You do that just
because you have an eight?

544
00:22:25,790 --> 00:22:26,730
AUDIENCE: Pretty much.

545
00:22:26,730 --> 00:22:29,850
WILL MA: Yeah, so we will
take that into account.

546
00:22:29,850 --> 00:22:31,942
But he could still
have an eight, right?

547
00:22:31,942 --> 00:22:32,900
But yeah, you're right.

548
00:22:32,900 --> 00:22:35,210
It is less likely, and we
will take it into account

549
00:22:35,210 --> 00:22:37,100
at the very end.

550
00:22:37,100 --> 00:22:38,540
So ace-five, let's assume--

551
00:22:38,540 --> 00:22:40,970
let's assume a lot of
these offsuit aces,

552
00:22:40,970 --> 00:22:45,680
he gives up because even with
overcards but with no backdoor

553
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:51,300
flush draw on a dry board,
I think is kind of scary.

554
00:22:51,300 --> 00:22:53,845
OK, so let's say something
like this on the flop--

555
00:22:53,845 --> 00:22:55,670
eight-five, let's
eliminate that.

556
00:22:55,670 --> 00:22:57,636
Eight-seven, I
think he'll check.

557
00:22:57,636 --> 00:22:59,510
So nine-seven, we're
going to assume he bets.

558
00:22:59,510 --> 00:23:01,195
Let's assume he
checks pocket 10s.

559
00:23:01,195 --> 00:23:02,570
Let's assumes he
also checks some

560
00:23:02,570 --> 00:23:10,090
of the weaker
10s-- like jack-10,

561
00:23:10,090 --> 00:23:12,510
let's suppose he checks.

562
00:23:12,510 --> 00:23:14,375
Maybe 10-9, he checks as well.

563
00:23:14,375 --> 00:23:15,105
10-7, he checks.

564
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,977
OK, nine-eight he checks.

565
00:23:21,977 --> 00:23:23,060
OK, am I missing anything?

566
00:23:23,060 --> 00:23:25,330
Did someone see something
you disagree with?

567
00:23:25,330 --> 00:23:26,640
King-queen off, king-jack off--

568
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,320
I think those are
too weak, too--

569
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,890
that end of this board--

570
00:23:30,890 --> 00:23:34,675
queen-nine, king-nine
suited, ace-nine down here.

571
00:23:34,675 --> 00:23:37,570
OK, I think this is roughly--

572
00:23:37,570 --> 00:23:39,475
it'll get easier on
the turn, basically.

573
00:23:39,475 --> 00:23:43,452
OK, So let's say this is what
he's going to have on the flop.

574
00:23:43,452 --> 00:23:44,910
Actually, some of
these weaker aces

575
00:23:44,910 --> 00:23:46,160
probably should be eliminated.

576
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,350
OK, let's eliminate everything
down to ace-five and below.

577
00:23:49,350 --> 00:23:50,920
Ace-seven and
ace-nine we'll keep in

578
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,211
because he has a straight draw.

579
00:23:55,580 --> 00:23:58,440
OK, so on the turn,
he bets again.

580
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,172
So did someone want to
suggest a hand that maybe we

581
00:24:01,172 --> 00:24:02,880
should eliminate
because he bet the turn?

582
00:24:05,750 --> 00:24:06,250
Yeah?

583
00:24:06,250 --> 00:24:07,750
AUDIENCE: Only
weak 10s, I guess?

584
00:24:07,750 --> 00:24:08,310
WILL MA: OK, good.

585
00:24:08,310 --> 00:24:09,976
Yeah, I think that's
a very good answer.

586
00:24:09,976 --> 00:24:12,940
So let's get rid of ace-10
and king-10 because those

587
00:24:12,940 --> 00:24:15,460
are no longer good hands-- or
they're no longer, I think,

588
00:24:15,460 --> 00:24:18,120
hands that you want to really
continue betting for value,

589
00:24:18,120 --> 00:24:18,630
right?

590
00:24:18,630 --> 00:24:20,950
Queen-10 is good because
you hit two pair.

591
00:24:20,950 --> 00:24:25,210
OK, is there another hand
that's of a similar category?

592
00:24:25,210 --> 00:24:28,420
So I guess pocket jacks is
of a similar category, right?

593
00:24:28,420 --> 00:24:32,350
It's not as good as it once was.

594
00:24:32,350 --> 00:24:34,507
OK, so what are some
other hands maybe you

595
00:24:34,507 --> 00:24:35,590
don't want to bluff with--

596
00:24:35,590 --> 00:24:37,048
you don't want to
bet with anymore?

597
00:24:44,802 --> 00:24:46,260
Are there any hands
you think maybe

598
00:24:46,260 --> 00:24:48,220
he would just give up because--

599
00:24:48,220 --> 00:24:50,476
AUDIENCE: The six-five.

600
00:24:50,476 --> 00:24:52,265
WILL MA: Yeah, I think
that's reasonable.

601
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:57,300
Most of these, we
can assume he's

602
00:24:57,300 --> 00:25:01,770
going to give up on the queen,
like five-four, especially.

603
00:25:01,770 --> 00:25:03,819
So on the flop, he didn't
even have a great hand.

604
00:25:03,819 --> 00:25:05,110
It was just drawing to a seven.

605
00:25:05,110 --> 00:25:07,050
But now, it's sort of worse.

606
00:25:07,050 --> 00:25:08,730
So yeah, let's get
rid of five-four.

607
00:25:11,384 --> 00:25:13,050
Do you think they
would continue betting

608
00:25:13,050 --> 00:25:17,300
like nine-six or seven-six?

609
00:25:17,300 --> 00:25:19,800
Yeah, even seven-five
is a pretty bad--

610
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,970
is a lot worse after the
queen because seven-five

611
00:25:22,970 --> 00:25:25,150
was like drawing to a nine.

612
00:25:25,150 --> 00:25:27,780
But now, when the
queen comes, the nine

613
00:25:27,780 --> 00:25:30,960
is not a good card because
you still lose to a jack.

614
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,110
So maybe we can get
rid of that one.

615
00:25:33,110 --> 00:25:35,370
Do you think they
definitely continue

616
00:25:35,370 --> 00:25:37,660
betting with ace-king,
ace-queen, ace-jack in all

617
00:25:37,660 --> 00:25:38,160
those?

618
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:43,824
Yeah?

619
00:25:43,824 --> 00:25:45,564
AUDIENCE: Maybe if
they had ace-queen,

620
00:25:45,564 --> 00:25:48,554
they would keep it [INAUDIBLE]
pretend to [INAUDIBLE]..

621
00:25:48,554 --> 00:25:50,470
WILL MA: Yeah, so
ace-queen, I think, is good.

622
00:25:50,470 --> 00:25:52,735
All right, so I think
this is [INAUDIBLE] good.

623
00:25:52,735 --> 00:25:54,145
Ace-nine-- some
of these hands, I

624
00:25:54,145 --> 00:25:56,020
think they would probably
stop bluffing with.

625
00:25:56,020 --> 00:25:59,360
Like I think jack-seven
suited is pretty--

626
00:25:59,360 --> 00:26:03,410
maybe some of the sixes
also, I think, it's hard to--

627
00:26:03,410 --> 00:26:05,100
even like ace-seven
suited, I think

628
00:26:05,100 --> 00:26:06,470
it's hard to continue bluffing.

629
00:26:06,470 --> 00:26:07,886
Because as we see,
there's already

630
00:26:07,886 --> 00:26:10,370
enough hands with draws, right?

631
00:26:10,370 --> 00:26:13,340
There are already a lot of
bluffs here like king-jack,

632
00:26:13,340 --> 00:26:15,010
ace-king--

633
00:26:15,010 --> 00:26:17,590
I guess like
queen-nine, nine-six,

634
00:26:17,590 --> 00:26:20,000
some of these-- so yeah,
maybe he'll bluff with these,

635
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,890
but OK, let's get rid of these.

636
00:26:22,890 --> 00:26:27,900
OK, so we've sort of cut
down his range a bit.

637
00:26:27,900 --> 00:26:31,070
So now it's a river
situation, and he checks.

638
00:26:31,070 --> 00:26:32,190
So what does this mean?

639
00:26:32,190 --> 00:26:34,610
Well, it seems improbable
that their opponent

640
00:26:34,610 --> 00:26:36,740
would be trying to
trap us with this check

641
00:26:36,740 --> 00:26:40,170
because he's already been
showing plenty of aggression.

642
00:26:40,170 --> 00:26:42,020
So it's hard for him
to pretend he suddenly

643
00:26:42,020 --> 00:26:44,265
has a bad hand by checking.

644
00:26:44,265 --> 00:26:46,100
And with the pot
already so big, he

645
00:26:46,100 --> 00:26:49,280
can get a large percent of our
remaining stack into the pot

646
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,680
just by betting instead
of check-raising.

647
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:56,680
So it seems like it's less
likely he's checking as a trap.

648
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,110
And also, the ace is
sort of a better card

649
00:26:59,110 --> 00:27:01,130
for his range than
ours because he's

650
00:27:01,130 --> 00:27:03,560
the one who's been
betting, so having draws,

651
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,390
having overcards like aces--

652
00:27:05,390 --> 00:27:10,760
and for us, we're much less
likely than him to have an ace.

653
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,500
So if it's a better
card for his range,

654
00:27:12,500 --> 00:27:15,500
he should be betting both for
value and with his bluffs.

655
00:27:15,500 --> 00:27:17,780
So that being said,
so let's suppose

656
00:27:17,780 --> 00:27:20,480
we assume it's
sort of unlikely he

657
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,000
has a really, really good
hand, but he could so easily

658
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:27,350
have a hand that beats ours
and calls our potential bluff.

659
00:27:27,350 --> 00:27:31,370
So OK, so now let's go back
to PokerStove and eliminate

660
00:27:31,370 --> 00:27:32,120
some more hands.

661
00:27:32,120 --> 00:27:34,140
OK, so what are some
hands we can eliminate

662
00:27:34,140 --> 00:27:35,680
after he checks the river?

663
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:36,797
AUDIENCE: Aces.

664
00:27:36,797 --> 00:27:37,630
WILL MA: Aces, yeah.

665
00:27:37,630 --> 00:27:38,890
I think that's a good one.

666
00:27:38,890 --> 00:27:42,197
I think aces, pretty clearly,
he'll bet again on the river.

667
00:27:42,197 --> 00:27:43,030
What's another hand?

668
00:27:43,030 --> 00:27:44,260
AUDIENCE: King-jack.

669
00:27:44,260 --> 00:27:46,080
WILL MA: Yeah, king-jack
I think he might.

670
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:47,630
OK, so let's eliminate
all other good hands

671
00:27:47,630 --> 00:27:49,270
that we think he's going
to continuation bet, right?

672
00:27:49,270 --> 00:27:51,170
I think with any
straight, I think

673
00:27:51,170 --> 00:27:52,930
it's reasonable to
assume they're just

674
00:27:52,930 --> 00:27:53,846
going to keep betting.

675
00:27:53,846 --> 00:27:55,850
Like nine-seven-- even
though it's nowhere near

676
00:27:55,850 --> 00:27:59,020
the monster it was
on the flop, it still

677
00:27:59,020 --> 00:28:00,890
only loses to jack-nine
and king-jack.

678
00:28:00,890 --> 00:28:03,470
So let's get rid of that one.

679
00:28:03,470 --> 00:28:05,650
AUDIENCE: Certainly
like ace-queen--

680
00:28:05,650 --> 00:28:06,280
all those.

681
00:28:09,290 --> 00:28:12,650
WILL MA: Yeah, I think most
strong two pairs I think,

682
00:28:12,650 --> 00:28:14,210
definitely, he'll keep betting.

683
00:28:14,210 --> 00:28:15,750
So let's get rid of that.

684
00:28:15,750 --> 00:28:17,300
Let's get rid of ace-queen.

685
00:28:17,300 --> 00:28:20,140
Let's get rid of queen-queen.

686
00:28:20,140 --> 00:28:21,370
Let's get rid of queen-10.

687
00:28:21,370 --> 00:28:24,530
I think queen-10 is good enough.

688
00:28:24,530 --> 00:28:27,130
Ace-eight-- let's
get rid of that one--

689
00:28:27,130 --> 00:28:28,225
yeah, that's good enough.

690
00:28:28,225 --> 00:28:30,350
Pocket eights, pocket sixes
I think is good enough.

691
00:28:33,020 --> 00:28:33,710
OK, good.

692
00:28:33,710 --> 00:28:36,650
So OK, we've got
some hands here--

693
00:28:36,650 --> 00:28:38,600
basically, all the
good hands we removed--

694
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,050
all the really good
hands that he bets again.

695
00:28:41,050 --> 00:28:42,500
What do you guys
think about 10-8?

696
00:28:42,500 --> 00:28:45,150
I guess it doesn't
matter too much.

697
00:28:45,150 --> 00:28:47,870
Let's assume he checks
10-8 because by this river,

698
00:28:47,870 --> 00:28:50,600
10-8 is no longer the
powerhouse it was.

699
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:52,190
Oh, I've got to get
rid of jack-nine.

700
00:28:52,190 --> 00:28:55,580
OK, what are some other hands
you think we can eliminate?

701
00:28:55,580 --> 00:28:57,830
So there there's actually
another category of hands

702
00:28:57,830 --> 00:28:59,580
we could, potentially,
eliminate here.

703
00:29:02,110 --> 00:29:02,610
Yeah?

704
00:29:02,610 --> 00:29:06,786
AUDIENCE: He would
probably bet an ace.

705
00:29:06,786 --> 00:29:11,292
WILL MA: Well an ace
isn't that good of a hand.

706
00:29:11,292 --> 00:29:13,000
So this is one problem
with this analysis

707
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,284
is, it is very
subject to debate what

708
00:29:15,284 --> 00:29:16,450
we think about our opponent.

709
00:29:16,450 --> 00:29:19,480
But for the sake of
this exercise, I'd say--

710
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:20,920
I mean also I
think in practice--

711
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,895
I think it's not clear that you
should value bet an ace here.

712
00:29:23,895 --> 00:29:25,353
Because there's
just a lot of stuff

713
00:29:25,353 --> 00:29:27,850
that beats you-- a lot of
straights, a lot of two pairs.

714
00:29:27,850 --> 00:29:29,558
I think that even if
you have a ace-king,

715
00:29:29,558 --> 00:29:31,600
you shouldn't really
be confident enough

716
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:32,700
in your hand to bet.

717
00:29:32,700 --> 00:29:34,990
Like maybe ace-king is
marginal but definitely

718
00:29:34,990 --> 00:29:38,160
not like ace-seven.

719
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:39,510
Yeah?

720
00:29:39,510 --> 00:29:41,990
AUDIENCE: Bluff bets-- so like
weak hands, maybe six-four.

721
00:29:41,990 --> 00:29:42,906
WILL MA: Great, great.

722
00:29:42,906 --> 00:29:45,100
Yeah, exactly, so that's
what I wanted to hear.

723
00:29:45,100 --> 00:29:47,900
So we can also eliminate some
of his really weak hands.

724
00:29:47,900 --> 00:29:48,590
This is crucial.

725
00:29:48,590 --> 00:29:50,030
This is an easy thing to miss.

726
00:29:50,030 --> 00:29:52,170
We can probably
assume he's not going

727
00:29:52,170 --> 00:29:55,975
to have king-seven because
the ace is a reasonable card

728
00:29:55,975 --> 00:29:57,061
to bluff.

729
00:29:57,061 --> 00:29:59,060
It's not great-- it's not
like the ace of clubs,

730
00:29:59,060 --> 00:30:00,976
which would be a better
card for him to bluff,

731
00:30:00,976 --> 00:30:02,180
but if he's got nothing--

732
00:30:02,180 --> 00:30:04,160
like if he just
completely missed--

733
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:05,790
probably-- I mean,
let's assume you

734
00:30:05,790 --> 00:30:07,722
know these guys are
pretty good players.

735
00:30:07,722 --> 00:30:08,930
He's probably going to bluff.

736
00:30:08,930 --> 00:30:12,560
So let's assume he
at least has a pair.

737
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,380
He has some showdown value,
because if he had zero showdown

738
00:30:15,380 --> 00:30:16,610
value, he would have bluffed.

739
00:30:16,610 --> 00:30:21,930
So let's get rid of king-seven,
let's get rid of king-nine.

740
00:30:21,930 --> 00:30:26,870
Six-five six-four-- I
think, definitely, he

741
00:30:26,870 --> 00:30:28,790
should be bluffing,
but maybe some players

742
00:30:28,790 --> 00:30:30,530
will see a pair of
sixes and say, oh I

743
00:30:30,530 --> 00:30:31,850
have enough showdown value.

744
00:30:31,850 --> 00:30:33,933
So let's get rid of one
of them but not the other.

745
00:30:33,933 --> 00:30:35,100
Maybe that's reasonable.

746
00:30:35,100 --> 00:30:36,667
So let's get rid of two.

747
00:30:36,667 --> 00:30:38,250
So let's get of
six-four and seven-six

748
00:30:38,250 --> 00:30:39,990
but keep in six-five
and nine-six.

749
00:30:42,790 --> 00:30:48,050
OK, so we leave
ourselves with these.

750
00:30:48,050 --> 00:30:50,450
OK, so this seems about
reasonable, I think.

751
00:30:55,630 --> 00:30:59,419
Let's eliminate ace-seven.

752
00:30:59,419 --> 00:31:01,460
I think we should have
eliminated it on the turn.

753
00:31:01,460 --> 00:31:04,126
Maybe like ace-seven of clubs we
can-- oh no, ace-seven of clubs

754
00:31:04,126 --> 00:31:07,680
he can't have because we
have the seven of clubs.

755
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,280
I think any other ace-seven
other than the ace-seven

756
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,640
of clubs is kind of bad to bet
on the turn because the seven

757
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,710
isn't really that
good of a card to--

758
00:31:16,710 --> 00:31:18,050
isn't that good of a draw.

759
00:31:18,050 --> 00:31:20,870
So let's get rid of ace-seven.

760
00:31:20,870 --> 00:31:22,400
So let's just suppose it's this.

761
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:26,260
OK, so that was a lot of work.

762
00:31:26,260 --> 00:31:30,410
OK, so now roughly
speaking, we can

763
00:31:30,410 --> 00:31:33,800
conclude his range on the
river is something like this.

764
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,540
So let's assume that
he's going to call

765
00:31:35,540 --> 00:31:37,430
with top pair or better.

766
00:31:37,430 --> 00:31:39,590
Once again, this is a
pretty strong assumption,

767
00:31:39,590 --> 00:31:41,694
but let's suppose
this is the way

768
00:31:41,694 --> 00:31:42,860
we think he's going to play.

769
00:31:42,860 --> 00:31:45,680
He's going to call if
he has an ace or better

770
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:47,690
and fold other ones.

771
00:31:47,690 --> 00:31:52,310
So we're risking 70 to win 100.

772
00:31:52,310 --> 00:31:54,394
So let's do an exact
calculation now

773
00:31:54,394 --> 00:31:56,060
of how many combinations
of these hands.

774
00:31:58,820 --> 00:31:59,820
I'll do this on Notepad.

775
00:32:04,870 --> 00:32:07,955
OK, let me pull up the board.

776
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,340
OK, hopefully,
people can see this.

777
00:32:22,340 --> 00:32:24,445
So when I said
combinatorial hand analysis,

778
00:32:24,445 --> 00:32:25,820
I mean we're going
to, basically,

779
00:32:25,820 --> 00:32:27,170
count the combinations.

780
00:32:27,170 --> 00:32:29,180
And like you pointed
out, this is--

781
00:32:29,180 --> 00:32:31,860
oh crap, did I accidentally
get rid of that?

782
00:32:31,860 --> 00:32:33,820
Oh, that's not good.

783
00:32:33,820 --> 00:32:36,050
OK, let me quickly put it back.

784
00:32:36,050 --> 00:32:40,450
So OK, we had kings left,
ace-king, ace-jack, ace-nine,

785
00:32:40,450 --> 00:32:48,920
king-queen, queen-jack,
queen-nine, what else?

786
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:55,130
10-8, 10-6, eight-six--
we had some sixes, right?

787
00:32:55,130 --> 00:33:01,232
Seven-six, six-five--
and is there something

788
00:33:01,232 --> 00:33:01,940
else I'm missing?

789
00:33:01,940 --> 00:33:06,560
Does anyone remember
if there's something

790
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,604
I'm forgetting to check off?

791
00:33:09,604 --> 00:33:11,020
I knocked queen-nine
off, I guess.

792
00:33:11,020 --> 00:33:11,880
I think this about right.

793
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:13,660
Maybe I'm missing like
one or two things.

794
00:33:20,865 --> 00:33:21,740
No one sees anything?

795
00:33:21,740 --> 00:33:26,020
I think this is approximately
what we had, right?

796
00:33:26,020 --> 00:33:29,780
OK, hopefully I
didn't miss enough

797
00:33:29,780 --> 00:33:31,280
that it drastically changes.

798
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:32,700
It shouldn't.

799
00:33:32,700 --> 00:33:34,240
OK, so let's count
the combinations.

800
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:38,420
Because you can look at the
square on the PokerStove and--

801
00:33:38,420 --> 00:33:40,190
let me clear this
annotation-- sorry,

802
00:33:40,190 --> 00:33:41,900
I should've done
that a while ago.

803
00:33:41,900 --> 00:33:46,490
OK, so you can see the
yellow hands on the square

804
00:33:46,490 --> 00:33:49,740
and roughly see how
many hands of each type.

805
00:33:49,740 --> 00:33:54,210
There's, essentially, three
types of hands he could have.

806
00:33:54,210 --> 00:33:59,030
There's hands that call, there's
hands that beat us and call,

807
00:33:59,030 --> 00:34:01,730
there's hands that
beat us and fold,

808
00:34:01,730 --> 00:34:06,470
and there's hands
that we beat and fold.

809
00:34:06,470 --> 00:34:08,929
But the thing is, if you just
look at these yellow squares,

810
00:34:08,929 --> 00:34:11,929
it won't give you the right
probabilities because we

811
00:34:11,929 --> 00:34:13,489
have certain cards in our hand.

812
00:34:13,489 --> 00:34:15,550
And also, because
of the specific ways

813
00:34:15,550 --> 00:34:17,449
suited combinations
work, there's

814
00:34:17,449 --> 00:34:19,181
different combinations
of each hand.

815
00:34:19,181 --> 00:34:20,389
So OK, let's go through this.

816
00:34:20,389 --> 00:34:24,580
So how many combinations of
ace-king suited are there

817
00:34:24,580 --> 00:34:27,030
that-- so we assume he
had a backdoor flush draw

818
00:34:27,030 --> 00:34:29,270
on the flop, but--

819
00:34:29,270 --> 00:34:33,892
so how many combinations of
ace-king suited are possible?

820
00:34:33,892 --> 00:34:35,850
Don't worry about the
backdoor flush draw part.

821
00:34:35,850 --> 00:34:37,308
It doesn't matter
for this example.

822
00:34:37,308 --> 00:34:39,949
So how many combinations
of ace-king suited, Will?

823
00:34:39,949 --> 00:34:40,973
Three.

824
00:34:40,973 --> 00:34:42,139
Because it has to be suited.

825
00:34:42,139 --> 00:34:44,389
And it can't be spades
because the ace of spades

826
00:34:44,389 --> 00:34:45,409
is on the board.

827
00:34:45,409 --> 00:34:48,090
So it's three combinations.

828
00:34:48,090 --> 00:34:50,268
OK, ace-jack suited?

829
00:34:50,268 --> 00:34:51,139
AUDIENCE: Three.

830
00:34:51,139 --> 00:34:52,560
WILL MA: Three, OK, good.

831
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,424
Ace-nine suited?

832
00:34:55,424 --> 00:34:56,408
AUDIENCE: Three.

833
00:34:56,408 --> 00:34:57,139
WILL MA: Three.

834
00:34:57,139 --> 00:34:59,800
OK, good.

835
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:01,585
All right, pocket kings?

836
00:35:01,585 --> 00:35:03,440
AUDIENCE: About six?

837
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,240
WILL MA: Right, so
pocket kings is six.

838
00:35:05,240 --> 00:35:07,281
Because there's no kings;
we don't see any kings,

839
00:35:07,281 --> 00:35:09,240
and there's no such
thing as suitedness.

840
00:35:09,240 --> 00:35:11,530
So yeah, so one thing
you realize in this--

841
00:35:11,530 --> 00:35:14,159
oh, so pocket kings we're
assuming he's going to fold--

842
00:35:14,159 --> 00:35:15,950
one thing you will
realize in this exercise

843
00:35:15,950 --> 00:35:18,020
is, you've got to
put a lot of weight

844
00:35:18,020 --> 00:35:20,120
on the offsuit hands
instead of the suited hands.

845
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,600
Because the offsuit hands,
combinatorially, have way more

846
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:26,030
possibilities-- essentially
three times as many

847
00:35:26,030 --> 00:35:28,190
possibilities-- as
the suited hands.

848
00:35:28,190 --> 00:35:31,040
So like this queen-jack
offsuit in here

849
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,110
has a huge weight
in our calculation.

850
00:35:33,110 --> 00:35:35,090
That's by far his
most likely hand.

851
00:35:35,090 --> 00:35:38,600
Because it's the only offsuit
hand we're putting him on.

852
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,480
Yeah, it's the only offsuit--

853
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,250
is it really only the offsuit
hand that he could have?

854
00:35:43,250 --> 00:35:45,200
I guess according
to our analysis,

855
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:46,835
we're assuming the
only offsuit hand he

856
00:35:46,835 --> 00:35:48,230
could have is queen-jack off.

857
00:35:48,230 --> 00:35:50,438
So how many combinations of
queen-jack off are there?

858
00:35:54,379 --> 00:35:54,920
AUDIENCE: 12.

859
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:56,680
AUDIENCE: 12.

860
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,530
WILL MA: OK, so let's just
say queen-jack in total.

861
00:35:59,530 --> 00:36:01,685
Queen-jack suited
plus offsuit is 12.

862
00:36:01,685 --> 00:36:04,540
Because we see a queen,
so there's four jacks,

863
00:36:04,540 --> 00:36:06,135
three queens, three
times four is 12.

864
00:36:06,135 --> 00:36:07,510
It could be suited
or not suited.

865
00:36:07,510 --> 00:36:09,092
So OK, that counts
for both of those.

866
00:36:09,092 --> 00:36:10,300
What about king-queen suited?

867
00:36:13,102 --> 00:36:14,510
AUDIENCE: Three as well?

868
00:36:14,510 --> 00:36:17,660
WILL MA: So it's three as well,
but I'm going to put it as two

869
00:36:17,660 --> 00:36:20,900
because I can assume if he
had king-queen of spades,

870
00:36:20,900 --> 00:36:24,619
which has no flush dras-- like
no runner-runner flush draw

871
00:36:24,619 --> 00:36:25,160
on the flop--

872
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:26,870
I'm going to assume that he
would have folded king-queen

873
00:36:26,870 --> 00:36:27,786
of spades on the flop.

874
00:36:27,786 --> 00:36:31,390
So I'm going to give it two.

875
00:36:31,390 --> 00:36:33,140
OK, so which ones
haven't we done?

876
00:36:33,140 --> 00:36:37,350
Queen-nine suited,
how many combinations?

877
00:36:37,350 --> 00:36:38,460
Three?

878
00:36:38,460 --> 00:36:39,630
AUDIENCE: Yes.

879
00:36:39,630 --> 00:36:44,820
WILL MA: OK, 10-8
suited, these get five.

880
00:36:44,820 --> 00:36:46,920
So the reason why
10-8 is suited is

881
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,680
because we're assuming he
doesn't raise 10-8 offsuit

882
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:51,040
preflop from that position.

883
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,770
So that's why 10-8
has to be suited.

884
00:36:53,770 --> 00:36:56,220
So how many combinations
of 10-8 suited?

885
00:36:56,220 --> 00:36:57,000
Two.

886
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:59,310
OK, how many combinations
of 10-6 suited?

887
00:36:59,310 --> 00:37:00,750
AUDIENCE: Two as well.

888
00:37:00,750 --> 00:37:01,350
WILL MA: Two.

889
00:37:01,350 --> 00:37:04,962
How many combinations
of eight-six suited?

890
00:37:04,962 --> 00:37:05,830
AUDIENCE: One?

891
00:37:05,830 --> 00:37:06,590
WILL MA: One, yes.

892
00:37:06,590 --> 00:37:07,089
OK.

893
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:13,570
I miscategorized this one.

894
00:37:13,570 --> 00:37:16,550
So queen-nine is in this
category that he's folding.

895
00:37:16,550 --> 00:37:20,000
These are all the hands that
call our bluff and beat us.

896
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,160
And so the last
category is the hands

897
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,860
that we can actually
beat if we check it down.

898
00:37:24,860 --> 00:37:25,910
So it's very small.

899
00:37:25,910 --> 00:37:30,150
It's just seven-six
and six-five suited.

900
00:37:30,150 --> 00:37:33,134
OK, so seven-six suited,
how many combinations?

901
00:37:33,134 --> 00:37:34,090
AUDIENCE: Two?

902
00:37:34,090 --> 00:37:34,970
WILL MA: Two.

903
00:37:34,970 --> 00:37:37,760
Six-five suited, three?

904
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,107
OK.

905
00:37:40,107 --> 00:37:40,940
Did I miss anything?

906
00:37:40,940 --> 00:37:42,710
I think this is it, right?

907
00:37:42,710 --> 00:37:45,440
OK, so basically we
have to tally it up.

908
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:46,955
So here, there's 14.

909
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,500
Here, there's 23.

910
00:37:52,500 --> 00:37:53,470
And here, there's five.

911
00:37:56,870 --> 00:38:03,547
OK so now that we've
done this calculation,

912
00:38:03,547 --> 00:38:05,130
we need to, basically,
run the numbers

913
00:38:05,130 --> 00:38:06,450
with these calculations.

914
00:38:06,450 --> 00:38:10,354
So essentially,
roughly speaking,

915
00:38:10,354 --> 00:38:12,270
they're going to fold
more than half the time.

916
00:38:17,709 --> 00:38:19,500
So the numbers-- I
think this will actually

917
00:38:19,500 --> 00:38:21,030
come out close
because with the way

918
00:38:21,030 --> 00:38:23,860
we did this specific
calculation,

919
00:38:23,860 --> 00:38:26,220
I think we gave him a lot
of combinations of hands

920
00:38:26,220 --> 00:38:28,050
that we can actually
check and beat.

921
00:38:28,050 --> 00:38:30,540
But I think this is still--
this will still definitely

922
00:38:30,540 --> 00:38:31,620
call for a bluff.

923
00:38:31,620 --> 00:38:32,489
But it close.

924
00:38:32,489 --> 00:38:34,530
If you've done the homework,
the homework sort of

925
00:38:34,530 --> 00:38:35,640
addresses this, right?

926
00:38:39,700 --> 00:38:42,210
It's not just the probability
he's calling our bluff,

927
00:38:42,210 --> 00:38:44,400
it's the probability
he's calling

928
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:48,020
our bluff versus the probability
we win the hand by checking.

929
00:38:48,020 --> 00:38:51,975
And the probability we win the
hand by checking is roughly 5

930
00:38:51,975 --> 00:38:54,500
out of 42--

931
00:38:54,500 --> 00:38:58,320
so which is pretty small, and he
folds more than half the time.

932
00:38:58,320 --> 00:38:59,730
So if you run the
numbers, you'll

933
00:38:59,730 --> 00:39:03,390
see that bluffing is
overwhelmingly profitable.

934
00:39:03,390 --> 00:39:07,280
And I think this
is a good example

935
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,670
of why this combinatorial
analysis is good--

936
00:39:09,670 --> 00:39:12,450
is because if you
look at PokerStove

937
00:39:12,450 --> 00:39:15,880
and you look at this,
you might actually think

938
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:19,150
bluffing is bad because you
look at most of the hands--

939
00:39:19,150 --> 00:39:22,120
ace-king, ace-jack,
ace-nine, 10-8, 10-6, 8-6--

940
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:25,680
it's hands that
call us and beat us,

941
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:28,080
but when you do this
combinatorial analysis,

942
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:31,460
you'll realize there's way
more combinations of queen-jack

943
00:39:31,460 --> 00:39:33,270
than there are eight-six.

944
00:39:33,270 --> 00:39:35,460
So looking at this
itself isn't quite enough

945
00:39:35,460 --> 00:39:38,070
because this doesn't weight
the probabilities of each one

946
00:39:38,070 --> 00:39:40,460
correctly.

947
00:39:40,460 --> 00:39:43,410
So this is a good
exercise to do, I think.

948
00:39:43,410 --> 00:39:45,750
Even though we made a lot
of assumptions in our model,

949
00:39:45,750 --> 00:39:50,040
but it's a very good
exercise to do after the fact

950
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,740
to sort of just analyze
what are the different-- all

951
00:39:52,740 --> 00:39:55,035
the different possibilities.

952
00:39:55,035 --> 00:39:57,250
OK, so I'm going to
take a quick break here.

953
00:39:57,250 --> 00:39:59,640
And then for the last
half of the class,

954
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:03,180
I'm going to just talk about
some general poker topics.

955
00:40:03,180 --> 00:40:04,110
So no math.

956
00:40:04,110 --> 00:40:05,880
No poker hands.

957
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,200
But just some general stuff
about poker and some ending

958
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,590
remarks since this
is the last time

959
00:40:10,590 --> 00:40:12,914
I'm teaching since Bill
Chen is coming next time.

960
00:40:12,914 --> 00:40:15,330
If you want to, during the
break, think about any question

961
00:40:15,330 --> 00:40:17,560
you might want to ask me
about poker in general--

962
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:19,890
or specific-- and--

963
00:40:19,890 --> 00:40:22,287
yeah-- so we'll take
like a 10-minute break.

964
00:40:22,287 --> 00:40:23,745
Make sure you hand
in the homework.

965
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,770
All right, so I'm
going to wrap up

966
00:40:28,770 --> 00:40:32,130
with some general thoughts about
poker and poker in general.

967
00:40:32,130 --> 00:40:35,190
So one question that
I get asked a lot

968
00:40:35,190 --> 00:40:37,320
is, it's called the
Moneymaker effect.

969
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:39,540
So what happened-- and this
is sort of a big catalyst

970
00:40:39,540 --> 00:40:41,010
for poker becoming
really popular--

971
00:40:41,010 --> 00:40:44,450
was, I think in 2003,
Chris Moneymaker,

972
00:40:44,450 --> 00:40:45,630
that's actually his name--

973
00:40:45,630 --> 00:40:48,480
Moneymaker is his last name--

974
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,650
he spent like $1 playing in
this satellite on PokerStars,

975
00:40:51,650 --> 00:40:54,179
won a seat to the World
Series of Poker main event,

976
00:40:54,179 --> 00:40:56,220
and then went there, and
then won the whole thing

977
00:40:56,220 --> 00:40:58,460
for like $2.5 million.

978
00:40:58,460 --> 00:41:00,136
It was a beautiful
Cinderella story,

979
00:41:00,136 --> 00:41:01,260
and then people heard this.

980
00:41:01,260 --> 00:41:02,730
And also, they made it
seem like, you know,

981
00:41:02,730 --> 00:41:04,520
it's not like the lottery
where you've got to get really,

982
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:05,686
really lucky to become rich.

983
00:41:05,686 --> 00:41:07,730
It's literally, this
guy's really smart.

984
00:41:07,730 --> 00:41:10,420
He can read people,
and it's all skill.

985
00:41:10,420 --> 00:41:11,280
And he did this.

986
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,890
And it's sort of like, anyone
can become a poker star just

987
00:41:13,890 --> 00:41:16,380
like Chris Moneymaker.

988
00:41:16,380 --> 00:41:19,510
And this was a
huge driving force

989
00:41:19,510 --> 00:41:22,360
in the popularity of poker.

990
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:25,260
So a question that I
wondered myself is,

991
00:41:25,260 --> 00:41:27,305
how could there actually
be so much money?

992
00:41:27,305 --> 00:41:29,430
Because someone has to be
losing this money for you

993
00:41:29,430 --> 00:41:31,370
to be winning this money, right?

994
00:41:31,370 --> 00:41:34,770
So where is the
money coming from?

995
00:41:34,770 --> 00:41:37,940
Can anyone smart and
motivated succeed in poker?

996
00:41:37,940 --> 00:41:40,650
Et cetera.

997
00:41:40,650 --> 00:41:43,581
OK, so what's
unique about poker?

998
00:41:43,581 --> 00:41:45,330
Why can't you make
this much money playing

999
00:41:45,330 --> 00:41:47,280
like chess or something?

1000
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,110
Why can't you make this
much money playing hockey?

1001
00:41:50,110 --> 00:41:51,630
So what's unique about poker?

1002
00:41:51,630 --> 00:41:53,470
So I guess four unique
aspects that allows

1003
00:41:53,470 --> 00:41:54,720
for there to be so much money.

1004
00:41:54,720 --> 00:41:56,740
So I'm going to talk
about them individually.

1005
00:41:56,740 --> 00:42:00,205
One is, I think everyone is
overconfident, myself included.

1006
00:42:00,205 --> 00:42:04,050
Two is, gambling
self-control-- aspects of that.

1007
00:42:04,050 --> 00:42:06,570
Three is, it's a very
fast-evolving game.

1008
00:42:06,570 --> 00:42:08,760
And four is, what I sort
of started the class--

1009
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:12,650
the very first class I talked
about being credit card

1010
00:42:12,650 --> 00:42:14,750
roulette-- not being
results-oriented.

1011
00:42:14,750 --> 00:42:15,990
And I think that's very hard.

1012
00:42:15,990 --> 00:42:19,770
So I'll go through each
one of them separately.

1013
00:42:19,770 --> 00:42:22,100
So yeah, one is this huge
overconfidence thing,

1014
00:42:22,100 --> 00:42:23,100
which is very prevalent.

1015
00:42:23,100 --> 00:42:26,910
So it's normal, in general,
for people to be overconfident.

1016
00:42:26,910 --> 00:42:30,150
I don't know how many of you
have seen the experiment where

1017
00:42:30,150 --> 00:42:33,090
it's like, you know, write
down your 95% confidence

1018
00:42:33,090 --> 00:42:35,000
intervals for all these things.

1019
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:37,380
So if they're actually
95% confidence intervals

1020
00:42:37,380 --> 00:42:39,180
and they're
correctly calibrated,

1021
00:42:39,180 --> 00:42:41,790
then actually 19 out
of 20 of your intervals

1022
00:42:41,790 --> 00:42:43,530
should contain the real thing.

1023
00:42:43,530 --> 00:42:45,270
But like you do this
for a normal person,

1024
00:42:45,270 --> 00:42:48,990
it'll be like, 30% of their
things actually lie neutral.

1025
00:42:48,990 --> 00:42:52,640
So they're just
drastically overconfident.

1026
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:55,530
And so yeah, it's normal to be
overconfident, but especially

1027
00:42:55,530 --> 00:42:56,586
in poker.

1028
00:42:56,586 --> 00:42:57,960
I think poker is
among the things

1029
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:00,210
I know where it's
easiest to overestimate

1030
00:43:00,210 --> 00:43:02,000
your own abilities.

1031
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,110
Does someone want to
suggest any others?

1032
00:43:04,110 --> 00:43:06,209
Is there something else
you think where like,

1033
00:43:06,209 --> 00:43:08,000
everyone thinks they're
good at this thing?

1034
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:17,480
So I can think of two examples
that I think are sort of true.

1035
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:21,335
Raise your hand if you think
you're a below medium driver.

1036
00:43:23,932 --> 00:43:26,015
No, but some people actually
are willing to do it.

1037
00:43:26,015 --> 00:43:28,400
Because I very rarely talk
to someone who admitted

1038
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:29,677
to being bad at driving.

1039
00:43:29,677 --> 00:43:31,760
Everyone I've ever asked
about their driving skill

1040
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,490
thinks they're really good at
driving a car, myself included.

1041
00:43:34,490 --> 00:43:37,577
I definitely don't think
I'm a below medium driver.

1042
00:43:37,577 --> 00:43:38,660
Another thing is teaching.

1043
00:43:38,660 --> 00:43:41,360
I've also barely
talked to someone

1044
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:44,090
who thinks they're worse
than medium at teaching.

1045
00:43:47,032 --> 00:43:48,490
I guess maybe
Professor [INAUDIBLE]

1046
00:43:48,490 --> 00:43:49,840
can speak about this.

1047
00:43:54,900 --> 00:43:57,820
Most things someone will
admit to being bad at this,

1048
00:43:57,820 --> 00:44:02,340
but poker is similar to these
two examples I thought of--

1049
00:44:02,340 --> 00:44:03,560
driving, teaching, sort of.

1050
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,120
Where it's just very easy to
think you're really good at it,

1051
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:09,270
and it's hard to admit to
yourself that you're not

1052
00:44:09,270 --> 00:44:10,270
good at it.

1053
00:44:10,270 --> 00:44:13,770
Yeah, so one saying in poker
is, if you can't spot the fish

1054
00:44:13,770 --> 00:44:17,190
at the table-- the fish is like
the losing player that everyone

1055
00:44:17,190 --> 00:44:18,530
is trying to win money from--

1056
00:44:18,530 --> 00:44:20,520
then you are the fish.

1057
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,210
This is sort of
a popular saying.

1058
00:44:23,210 --> 00:44:26,355
So why is overconfidence
so common in poker?

1059
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:30,720
It's like a mental battle.

1060
00:44:30,720 --> 00:44:33,330
Your mentally battling
against your opponent.

1061
00:44:33,330 --> 00:44:34,110
Is he bluffing?

1062
00:44:34,110 --> 00:44:34,950
Is he not?

1063
00:44:34,950 --> 00:44:36,900
And it's just easy
to always assume--

1064
00:44:36,900 --> 00:44:40,409
which I do throughout a
lot of this class, right?

1065
00:44:40,409 --> 00:44:41,700
I talk about exploitative play.

1066
00:44:41,700 --> 00:44:43,670
I'm building a model
for our opponent

1067
00:44:43,670 --> 00:44:47,070
and assuming that they behave
as a probabilistic machine

1068
00:44:47,070 --> 00:44:48,330
according to my model.

1069
00:44:48,330 --> 00:44:50,250
I'm assuming that I'm
ahead of my opponent.

1070
00:44:50,250 --> 00:44:52,032
I'm assuming I'm better.

1071
00:44:52,032 --> 00:44:54,150
There's also a lot of
selective memory, I think.

1072
00:44:54,150 --> 00:44:56,100
It's easy to remember
your bad beats--

1073
00:44:56,100 --> 00:44:59,590
the time they hit a king on
the river and beat your aces--

1074
00:44:59,590 --> 00:45:02,730
and it's easy to forget the
times you got really lucky

1075
00:45:02,730 --> 00:45:04,170
on the river and beat them.

1076
00:45:04,170 --> 00:45:08,250
So selective memory, I
think, is a big aspect.

1077
00:45:08,250 --> 00:45:11,410
I think lack of clear benchmarks
is a big aspect as well.

1078
00:45:11,410 --> 00:45:13,740
So it's not like
running 100 meters.

1079
00:45:13,740 --> 00:45:16,300
No one who takes 30
seconds to run 100 meters

1080
00:45:16,300 --> 00:45:19,410
is going to think, oh, I can
compete in the Olympics, right?

1081
00:45:19,410 --> 00:45:20,410
Because it's very clear.

1082
00:45:20,410 --> 00:45:23,210
There's a very clear benchmark
how fast you need to be.

1083
00:45:23,210 --> 00:45:26,700
But in poker, even if you
don't win tournaments,

1084
00:45:26,700 --> 00:45:28,800
it's easy to
complain about luck.

1085
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:30,780
And there's different
types of tournaments.

1086
00:45:30,780 --> 00:45:33,570
And it's easy to like bend
the benchmarks in a way

1087
00:45:33,570 --> 00:45:36,910
to convince yourself that
you're better than you are.

1088
00:45:36,910 --> 00:45:39,690
It's easy to hit a lucky streak
and consider it all skill,

1089
00:45:39,690 --> 00:45:42,150
and you can blame all your
losing streaks on luck.

1090
00:45:42,150 --> 00:45:43,740
So those are some
reasons I think.

1091
00:45:43,740 --> 00:45:46,020
I think poker is just a
very well-designed game

1092
00:45:46,020 --> 00:45:48,030
for this purpose
and to, basically,

1093
00:45:48,030 --> 00:45:50,730
tricking and deceiving
people into overestimating

1094
00:45:50,730 --> 00:45:53,880
their own ability.

1095
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:56,460
And another aspect
of it is, and this

1096
00:45:56,460 --> 00:45:58,720
is what's really tough
poker, I think, is,

1097
00:45:58,720 --> 00:46:01,240
even though it's so easy
to be overconfident,

1098
00:46:01,240 --> 00:46:03,780
and it's such a flaw to be
overconfident, it's also,

1099
00:46:03,780 --> 00:46:04,950
in some sense, necessary.

1100
00:46:04,950 --> 00:46:06,750
You know, if you're
not confident,

1101
00:46:06,750 --> 00:46:08,190
how can you take risks?

1102
00:46:08,190 --> 00:46:11,000
Poker-- you're
gambling, essentially,

1103
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:13,200
and you have to do risky things.

1104
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:16,650
And if you're not confident, how
can you do risky things, right?

1105
00:46:16,650 --> 00:46:20,460
And also, if you're trying to
mentally read your opponent,

1106
00:46:20,460 --> 00:46:21,960
if you're constantly
remind yourself

1107
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,720
that you're dumber than you
think you are, then how can

1108
00:46:24,720 --> 00:46:28,980
you actually think that you
can outread your opponent?

1109
00:46:28,980 --> 00:46:30,750
And I talked about
this results-oriented.

1110
00:46:30,750 --> 00:46:32,310
You need to be
confident to trust

1111
00:46:32,310 --> 00:46:35,310
that you made a good decision
even though your result was

1112
00:46:35,310 --> 00:46:37,600
you lost $10,000 on the day.

1113
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:41,820
So confidence is also
necessary, but it's also so easy

1114
00:46:41,820 --> 00:46:42,860
to be overconfident.

1115
00:46:42,860 --> 00:46:46,470
So this balance of being
exactly the right confidence

1116
00:46:46,470 --> 00:46:50,010
is something that I think
even like professional poker

1117
00:46:50,010 --> 00:46:53,464
players strive to try to strike
the balance between every day.

1118
00:46:53,464 --> 00:46:54,630
And I think it's very tough.

1119
00:46:54,630 --> 00:46:55,980
And it's something I
struggle with a lot,

1120
00:46:55,980 --> 00:46:58,485
too, to try to figure out
when I'm being overconfident

1121
00:46:58,485 --> 00:47:02,470
and when I'm being
underconfident.

1122
00:47:02,470 --> 00:47:05,580
So I think one good mentality--
so back to this driving thing

1123
00:47:05,580 --> 00:47:09,300
is, I think it's a good
mentality-- you know,

1124
00:47:09,300 --> 00:47:10,800
if you play poker
and you enjoy it.

1125
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:11,950
I think it's a great game.

1126
00:47:11,950 --> 00:47:14,340
It's a beautiful mathematical
game and a fun game

1127
00:47:14,340 --> 00:47:17,010
to play with friends
if you're just

1128
00:47:17,010 --> 00:47:19,350
are willing to admit, you
know, I play in this home game

1129
00:47:19,350 --> 00:47:20,150
every Friday night.

1130
00:47:20,150 --> 00:47:23,190
I'm probably a below
average player.

1131
00:47:23,190 --> 00:47:25,744
I probably lose, on average,
$10 every time I play.

1132
00:47:25,744 --> 00:47:26,910
I think that's totally fine.

1133
00:47:26,910 --> 00:47:28,368
It's just like
spending your Friday

1134
00:47:28,368 --> 00:47:29,760
night going to see a movie.

1135
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:33,990
You pay $10 and you're happy
to take $10 out of your wallet

1136
00:47:33,990 --> 00:47:37,590
and not see it again, right?

1137
00:47:37,590 --> 00:47:40,740
I think it would be a healthy
mentality for more people

1138
00:47:40,740 --> 00:47:43,579
to be willing to do this and
just admit to themselves,

1139
00:47:43,579 --> 00:47:45,870
yeah, I enjoy playing poker,
and I lose a bit of money,

1140
00:47:45,870 --> 00:47:47,470
but you know, I
have fun doing it.

1141
00:47:47,470 --> 00:47:49,410
And it's the same
as seeing a movie

1142
00:47:49,410 --> 00:47:52,640
but, in reality, I think
this isn't the case.

1143
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:56,280
Even at these friendly Friday
night games for low stakes,

1144
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,260
probably, if you ask
all the people there,

1145
00:47:58,260 --> 00:48:00,060
do you think you're
beating your friends?

1146
00:48:00,060 --> 00:48:01,350
Everyone's going to say yes.

1147
00:48:01,350 --> 00:48:05,250
Everyone's not saying, oh,
I'm going there, essentially,

1148
00:48:05,250 --> 00:48:07,410
paying $10 to play
poker with my friends.

1149
00:48:07,410 --> 00:48:10,020
Everyone's saying, I'm winning
a bit of money or whatever,

1150
00:48:10,020 --> 00:48:10,520
right?

1151
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:16,440
So I think that's an important
mentality to try to have that.

1152
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:18,645
And I think it's fine.

1153
00:48:18,645 --> 00:48:22,320
You don't have to be the
best at everything, right?

1154
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:25,306
So one story I like to
tell is, so David Einhorn--

1155
00:48:25,306 --> 00:48:26,305
he's like a billionaire.

1156
00:48:26,305 --> 00:48:29,460
I think he founded Greenlight
Capital or something.

1157
00:48:29,460 --> 00:48:33,340
And he actually won $4
million in a $1 million

1158
00:48:33,340 --> 00:48:37,170
buy-in poker tournament and
donated it all to charity.

1159
00:48:37,170 --> 00:48:39,240
And after the fact--

1160
00:48:39,240 --> 00:48:41,520
he's always like a
super smart guy--

1161
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:43,860
so he played a $1 million
buy-in tournament.

1162
00:48:43,860 --> 00:48:46,850
So everyone else playing this
tournament is like a poker

1163
00:48:46,850 --> 00:48:48,990
professional-- the
best in the world--

1164
00:48:48,990 --> 00:48:52,400
and he's just like this
rich billionaire who

1165
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:53,960
doesn't really--
like he wasn't bad,

1166
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,750
but he just started
playing poker.

1167
00:48:56,750 --> 00:48:59,730
Like, he's a smart guy, and
he got coaching to play it,

1168
00:48:59,730 --> 00:49:02,930
but he was the clear
loser in the tournament.

1169
00:49:02,930 --> 00:49:03,930
And he just admitted it.

1170
00:49:03,930 --> 00:49:05,638
He just said you know,
I'm a billionaire.

1171
00:49:05,638 --> 00:49:07,250
I'm happy to spend
a million dollars

1172
00:49:07,250 --> 00:49:08,330
playing this tournament.

1173
00:49:08,330 --> 00:49:12,077
I understand I'm probably
expecting to lose like $200,000

1174
00:49:12,077 --> 00:49:14,410
or whatever playing this
tournament with all these guys,

1175
00:49:14,410 --> 00:49:15,330
but I'm fine with it.

1176
00:49:15,330 --> 00:49:17,514
I got a million dollars,
who cares, right?

1177
00:49:17,514 --> 00:49:18,680
And he was just very honest.

1178
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,070
And even after he
actually won $4 million,

1179
00:49:21,070 --> 00:49:22,820
he didn't come first,
he came like third--

1180
00:49:22,820 --> 00:49:26,010
he just admitted, you know, he
said like, I was very lucky.

1181
00:49:26,010 --> 00:49:28,670
I came in expecting to
just lose this $1 million

1182
00:49:28,670 --> 00:49:30,584
that I don't care
about, and then

1183
00:49:30,584 --> 00:49:32,750
he just donated all his
winnings to charity, anyway.

1184
00:49:32,750 --> 00:49:35,150
But I wish more
people were like him.

1185
00:49:35,150 --> 00:49:37,040
I think that's a
very good mentality

1186
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,800
to have to just admit that
you're playing poker for fun,

1187
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:43,060
and that's totally fine.

1188
00:49:43,060 --> 00:49:45,060
OK, so the second thing
I want to talk about

1189
00:49:45,060 --> 00:49:47,870
is gambling self-control.

1190
00:49:47,870 --> 00:49:51,290
So I think this can
also be the downfall

1191
00:49:51,290 --> 00:49:53,990
of a lot of smart and
motivated people trying

1192
00:49:53,990 --> 00:49:54,870
to get into poker.

1193
00:49:58,102 --> 00:49:59,810
So these are some
things that can happen.

1194
00:49:59,810 --> 00:50:01,730
So after getting unlucky
in the previous hand,

1195
00:50:01,730 --> 00:50:04,200
you play the next hand
poorly because you're upset.

1196
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:07,460
You're tilted, as
poker player say.

1197
00:50:07,460 --> 00:50:10,179
Or playing when you're
tired just to get unstuck.

1198
00:50:10,179 --> 00:50:12,470
I've definitely done this
many times before in my poker

1199
00:50:12,470 --> 00:50:13,460
career.

1200
00:50:13,460 --> 00:50:15,470
If I lost money,
especially when I

1201
00:50:15,470 --> 00:50:18,290
feel like I'd gotten unlucky
playing against someone

1202
00:50:18,290 --> 00:50:20,060
who I'm better
than and just like,

1203
00:50:20,060 --> 00:50:22,150
I've lost money
because I got unlucky,

1204
00:50:22,150 --> 00:50:26,240
I won't stop playing until I
get unstuck, which is like,

1205
00:50:26,240 --> 00:50:29,270
win back the money I lost until
I'm in the black, essentially.

1206
00:50:29,270 --> 00:50:32,922
And it's terrible because
even if I'm a bit better,

1207
00:50:32,922 --> 00:50:34,630
if I'm playing with
this mentality trying

1208
00:50:34,630 --> 00:50:36,900
to get unstuck, I'm
just going to be making

1209
00:50:36,900 --> 00:50:40,020
below average decisions, and
it's just not a good thing

1210
00:50:40,020 --> 00:50:42,330
to do.

1211
00:50:42,330 --> 00:50:44,640
And also from the
other side, it can be

1212
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:46,370
hard to rationalize gambling.

1213
00:50:46,370 --> 00:50:48,830
So it's hard to stop yourself
from gambling too much,

1214
00:50:48,830 --> 00:50:52,520
but it's also sometimes hard
to rationalize that, you know,

1215
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:54,830
gambling-- there is a lot
of stigma around gambling.

1216
00:50:54,830 --> 00:50:57,740
You have to convince
yourself that, I

1217
00:50:57,740 --> 00:50:59,172
shouldn't be too scared.

1218
00:50:59,172 --> 00:51:01,130
I'm playing this game
that involves-- you know,

1219
00:51:01,130 --> 00:51:02,150
you can call it gambling--

1220
00:51:02,150 --> 00:51:03,890
I'm playing this game
with a lot of luck.

1221
00:51:03,890 --> 00:51:05,914
And you've got to convince
yourself that, this

1222
00:51:05,914 --> 00:51:07,080
is what I'm fine with doing.

1223
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:08,240
It's like a lottery.

1224
00:51:08,240 --> 00:51:10,280
And you've got to
sometimes make decisions

1225
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:11,540
under pressure as well.

1226
00:51:11,540 --> 00:51:13,456
And you've just got to
rationalize to yourself

1227
00:51:13,456 --> 00:51:15,389
that, yeah, there's a
lot of luck in this,

1228
00:51:15,389 --> 00:51:16,930
but this is the game
I chose to play.

1229
00:51:21,020 --> 00:51:22,595
The third thing is--

1230
00:51:22,595 --> 00:51:26,450
so fast evolution, I think,
is another big aspect

1231
00:51:26,450 --> 00:51:31,550
of how there was so much money
in Texas hold 'em for so long.

1232
00:51:31,550 --> 00:51:34,490
So it was a relatively
new game, also

1233
00:51:34,490 --> 00:51:36,020
with a lot of hidden depth.

1234
00:51:36,020 --> 00:51:38,060
So something like
this can never happen

1235
00:51:38,060 --> 00:51:40,440
in chess, where chess
has been studied

1236
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:42,620
for hundreds,
thousands of years,

1237
00:51:42,620 --> 00:51:44,600
and it's not like a new game.

1238
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:47,450
And even though the best player
today is still better than

1239
00:51:47,450 --> 00:51:50,610
the best player 20 years ago,
it's not like the game is

1240
00:51:50,610 --> 00:51:55,110
evolving super fast, whereas
hold 'em was like a new game--

1241
00:51:55,110 --> 00:51:57,110
a relatively new
game at the time.

1242
00:51:57,110 --> 00:51:59,960
And just-- there was
so much hidden depth,

1243
00:51:59,960 --> 00:52:03,409
and the best players just
kept improving so fast that--

1244
00:52:03,409 --> 00:52:05,450
so like you say, like the
best player in the year

1245
00:52:05,450 --> 00:52:09,380
2000 would be like a
terrible player by 2004.

1246
00:52:09,380 --> 00:52:12,640
And like the best player in
2004 would be a bad player

1247
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:13,910
by 2008, et cetera.

1248
00:52:13,910 --> 00:52:16,580
So it's just, even if
you're on top of the game

1249
00:52:16,580 --> 00:52:18,680
right now, if you
stop studying, you're

1250
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:21,560
going to be nowhere near the
top of the game in like a year.

1251
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:23,010
So it was just so fast.

1252
00:52:23,010 --> 00:52:25,640
Can anyone else think of
other examples of things

1253
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:28,106
that are kind of like this?

1254
00:52:28,106 --> 00:52:32,420
AUDIENCE: CrossFit was--
well, if you get like--

1255
00:52:32,420 --> 00:52:37,280
the winner of the 2009-2010
games wouldn't even compete.

1256
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:38,370
WILL MA: Oh, wow.

1257
00:52:38,370 --> 00:52:39,430
OK I didn't know that.

1258
00:52:39,430 --> 00:52:40,400
That's cool.

1259
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:43,574
I didn't know CrossFit
was that good, yeah.

1260
00:52:43,574 --> 00:52:46,730
That's pretty crazy.

1261
00:52:46,730 --> 00:52:49,910
There's one other thing
I can sort of think of.

1262
00:52:49,910 --> 00:52:53,000
How many you guys have done
math contests as a kid?

1263
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:56,384
I think those, to my knowledge,
have gotten a lot harder,

1264
00:52:56,384 --> 00:52:57,800
just in terms of
how good you need

1265
00:52:57,800 --> 00:53:00,560
to be to say, be on the
United States national team

1266
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:04,060
is way harder now than it was,
say, 30 years ago from what

1267
00:53:04,060 --> 00:53:06,485
I've heard.

1268
00:53:06,485 --> 00:53:08,500
But yeah, so this
aspect of Texas hold

1269
00:53:08,500 --> 00:53:10,730
'em-- so this was also
a huge driving factor.

1270
00:53:10,730 --> 00:53:14,570
Because it would be
easy to tell yourself,

1271
00:53:14,570 --> 00:53:16,920
I was the best player in
the world four years ago.

1272
00:53:16,920 --> 00:53:20,400
I could obviously sit down at
this $1/$2 game and make money,

1273
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:20,900
right?

1274
00:53:20,900 --> 00:53:22,670
And the answer
would often be, no.

1275
00:53:22,670 --> 00:53:26,600
So this was another reason why
there was a lot of money in it.

1276
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:29,630
Because it's easy
to just remember

1277
00:53:29,630 --> 00:53:31,490
that you were the best
a year ago and just

1278
00:53:31,490 --> 00:53:36,760
forget that the tides
are rising so fast.

1279
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:39,800
So that being said, so I wanted
to also take this opportunity

1280
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:41,574
to suggest some
further readings for--

1281
00:53:41,574 --> 00:53:42,740
I know I've been asked this.

1282
00:53:42,740 --> 00:53:43,000
Yeah?

1283
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:44,270
AUDIENCE: So why is that?

1284
00:53:44,270 --> 00:53:45,670
Based on your understanding?

1285
00:53:45,670 --> 00:53:49,790
I think because of
your strategies--

1286
00:53:49,790 --> 00:53:51,266
you have to improve
your strategy?

1287
00:53:51,266 --> 00:53:52,640
WILL MA: Yeah,
yeah, I also think

1288
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:54,930
there was a lot of hidden depth.

1289
00:53:54,930 --> 00:53:59,040
So I mean, I think with any new
thing, this will be the case.

1290
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:01,940
But I think in poker,
there were many times

1291
00:54:01,940 --> 00:54:05,930
where the consensus amongst
the top players was that they

1292
00:54:05,930 --> 00:54:08,065
were close to solving the game.

1293
00:54:08,065 --> 00:54:09,440
And then a year
later, they would

1294
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:13,607
realize they missed completely
viable strategies that

1295
00:54:13,607 --> 00:54:15,440
completely messed up
all their calculations,

1296
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:17,220
and they had to start over.

1297
00:54:17,220 --> 00:54:19,700
So I think that was big.

1298
00:54:19,700 --> 00:54:22,184
It's easy to think that
you've solved the game

1299
00:54:22,184 --> 00:54:23,600
and then suddenly
realize, oh, I'm

1300
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:25,955
nowhere near solving the game
because I forgot about all

1301
00:54:25,955 --> 00:54:28,108
of these different strategies.

1302
00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:33,762
This might be sort of
true with a lot of--

1303
00:54:33,762 --> 00:54:34,970
I'm trying to think, I mean--

1304
00:54:34,970 --> 00:54:36,950
the biggest thing
is, it's a new thing.

1305
00:54:36,950 --> 00:54:38,990
Like it's hard for
this to happen like--

1306
00:54:38,990 --> 00:54:41,330
I think in most
sports that people

1307
00:54:41,330 --> 00:54:43,910
have done for a long time,
people get gradually better,

1308
00:54:43,910 --> 00:54:44,600
right?

1309
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:46,574
You look at like,
the 100-meter sprint.

1310
00:54:46,574 --> 00:54:48,740
It's like, yeah, the world
record is getting broken,

1311
00:54:48,740 --> 00:54:50,960
but it's not like it's
going to go from 10 seconds

1312
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:52,260
to five seconds.

1313
00:54:52,260 --> 00:54:57,860
It'll go from 10 seconds to 9.99
seconds or something like that.

1314
00:54:57,860 --> 00:55:02,504
So I think just the fact that
it's new is a big aspect.

1315
00:55:02,504 --> 00:55:05,630
But yeah, Texas hold 'em would
be the equivalent to the world

1316
00:55:05,630 --> 00:55:08,090
record in the 100 meters
being 10 seconds then

1317
00:55:08,090 --> 00:55:09,670
like five seconds
a year later, then

1318
00:55:09,670 --> 00:55:14,270
like two seconds like two years
later, it was just insane.

1319
00:55:14,270 --> 00:55:16,790
OK, so that being said, so
some people have asked me,

1320
00:55:16,790 --> 00:55:20,840
if I want to continue learning
about poker and reading poker,

1321
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:21,950
what should I do?

1322
00:55:21,950 --> 00:55:25,455
So that being said, I think
the best resources, by far,

1323
00:55:25,455 --> 00:55:27,280
are online.

1324
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:29,030
A lot of people have
asked me about books,

1325
00:55:29,030 --> 00:55:33,560
and I will recommend some books,
but I think books, basically,

1326
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:35,190
blew out of date way too fast.

1327
00:55:35,190 --> 00:55:38,540
So I think, in general, the
best resources are online.

1328
00:55:38,540 --> 00:55:42,530
So cardrunners.com is a website
where, basically, poker pros

1329
00:55:42,530 --> 00:55:46,752
can make videos of themselves
while playing and talking.

1330
00:55:46,752 --> 00:55:48,460
You do have to pay to
get a subscription.

1331
00:55:48,460 --> 00:55:52,970
OK, so this is a bit of a
biased advice, just a warning,

1332
00:55:52,970 --> 00:55:54,810
because I'm a pro
at CardRunners,

1333
00:55:54,810 --> 00:55:58,050
but, I mean, amongst
like 50, 60 other pros.

1334
00:55:58,050 --> 00:55:59,930
They also donated
some free memberships

1335
00:55:59,930 --> 00:56:02,570
to students in the class if
you guys looked at the prizes.

1336
00:56:02,570 --> 00:56:06,770
So you can get some free
memberships to CardRunners.

1337
00:56:06,770 --> 00:56:10,040
A good free resource
is Two Plus Two forums.

1338
00:56:10,040 --> 00:56:13,130
I think there's a lot of
garbage on those forums nowadays

1339
00:56:13,130 --> 00:56:16,310
but, still, most of the best
poker players in the world

1340
00:56:16,310 --> 00:56:19,785
still do use those forums and
posts on those forums-- so

1341
00:56:19,785 --> 00:56:20,410
twoplustwo.com.

1342
00:56:20,410 --> 00:56:23,950
There is a lot of
garbage and banter,

1343
00:56:23,950 --> 00:56:25,750
but if you are just
trying to improve,

1344
00:56:25,750 --> 00:56:27,250
there is good content on there.

1345
00:56:27,250 --> 00:56:30,490
You just have to find it.

1346
00:56:30,490 --> 00:56:32,960
So this is a new thing,
but on Twitch streams--

1347
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:36,370
so Twitch is a website
you can go on to watch,

1348
00:56:36,370 --> 00:56:39,970
essentially, poker
pros play in real time.

1349
00:56:39,970 --> 00:56:42,820
They share their screens and
talk through their hands.

1350
00:56:42,820 --> 00:56:44,620
It's a pretty good
free resource.

1351
00:56:44,620 --> 00:56:47,080
It's sometimes more
entertaining than educational,

1352
00:56:47,080 --> 00:56:48,730
but I think it's quite good.

1353
00:56:48,730 --> 00:56:51,520
And they would do
like a 10-minute delay

1354
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:54,820
so that you can't watch them and
you know what cards they have.

1355
00:56:54,820 --> 00:56:57,010
In case anyone was
considering trying

1356
00:56:57,010 --> 00:57:00,340
to do that to get an advantage.

1357
00:57:00,340 --> 00:57:02,530
So these are some
online resources,

1358
00:57:02,530 --> 00:57:05,260
and I will suggest
some books, although I

1359
00:57:05,260 --> 00:57:09,010
do think most of these books, I
think, are reasonably outdated.

1360
00:57:09,010 --> 00:57:11,475
But I do think they're
very-- in my opinion,

1361
00:57:11,475 --> 00:57:12,850
out of the books
I've read, these

1362
00:57:12,850 --> 00:57:14,590
are the best-written books.

1363
00:57:14,590 --> 00:57:17,320
And even if they're
a bit outdated,

1364
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:19,480
I think the theory and
the way they're written

1365
00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:22,000
is very good and also
somewhat entertaining

1366
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:24,820
and sort of gives you an
idea on the history of poker

1367
00:57:24,820 --> 00:57:27,869
and the evolution of the game.

1368
00:57:27,869 --> 00:57:29,410
So my favorite book
is the first one.

1369
00:57:29,410 --> 00:57:31,200
It's called, Small
Stakes Hold 'em.

1370
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:35,260
It's by Ed Miller, who's a
MIT graduate; David Sklansky;

1371
00:57:35,260 --> 00:57:36,790
and Mason Malmuth.

1372
00:57:36,790 --> 00:57:38,420
So this is actually
limit hold 'em,

1373
00:57:38,420 --> 00:57:40,970
which is, in some sense,
a solved game nowadays,

1374
00:57:40,970 --> 00:57:43,000
and no one plays limit
hold 'em anymore.

1375
00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:46,630
So limit hold 'em is where
you can't bet any amount.

1376
00:57:46,630 --> 00:57:50,770
You have to bet a
very specific size.

1377
00:57:50,770 --> 00:57:52,796
But I think this is one
of the classic books.

1378
00:57:52,796 --> 00:57:54,670
So this is one of the
classic books in poker.

1379
00:57:54,670 --> 00:57:57,037
It's very well written and
written by mathematicians.

1380
00:57:57,037 --> 00:57:59,245
And it just goes through
the basic concepts of poker,

1381
00:57:59,245 --> 00:58:01,828
I think, very, very well, even
though it's for limit hold 'em.

1382
00:58:01,828 --> 00:58:02,710
And it's a good read.

1383
00:58:05,830 --> 00:58:09,100
Yeah, it might even be a
collector's item nowadays.

1384
00:58:09,100 --> 00:58:11,620
So one story I'd like to
tell about this book is--

1385
00:58:11,620 --> 00:58:14,410
so my good friend,
Mike McDonald, he was--

1386
00:58:14,410 --> 00:58:18,540
so he's the guy who
got me into poker.

1387
00:58:18,540 --> 00:58:20,800
He's probably read this
book, he says like--

1388
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:22,960
maybe like 20 times.

1389
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,764
And then he's also a guy who
doesn't really like reading.

1390
00:58:25,764 --> 00:58:27,430
So I think there was
a point in his life

1391
00:58:27,430 --> 00:58:31,390
where he's read less than 20
different books in his life

1392
00:58:31,390 --> 00:58:34,990
but then this specific
book more than 20 times.

1393
00:58:34,990 --> 00:58:37,330
So it's a very good book.

1394
00:58:37,330 --> 00:58:39,520
Harrington on Hold
'em is on tournaments.

1395
00:58:39,520 --> 00:58:40,420
It's outdated.

1396
00:58:40,420 --> 00:58:42,070
It's really, really
badly outdated,

1397
00:58:42,070 --> 00:58:44,390
but I still think it's
very well written and has

1398
00:58:44,390 --> 00:58:45,352
some good concepts.

1399
00:58:45,352 --> 00:58:46,810
That's how I first
started learning

1400
00:58:46,810 --> 00:58:50,830
to play tournaments is
Harrington on Hold 'em 1 and 2.

1401
00:58:50,830 --> 00:58:53,620
Kill Phil/ Kill Everyone
I think is pretty good,

1402
00:58:53,620 --> 00:58:54,620
pretty up to date--

1403
00:58:54,620 --> 00:58:56,400
it's decent, I think.

1404
00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:57,970
Every Hand Revealed is--

1405
00:58:57,970 --> 00:58:59,770
Gus Hansen's a very
famous poker player

1406
00:58:59,770 --> 00:59:02,620
who's been around forever.

1407
00:59:02,620 --> 00:59:05,920
So it's a book where he goes
through every hand he played

1408
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:07,384
in this tournament that he won.

1409
00:59:07,384 --> 00:59:09,550
And I think it's more
entertaining than educational,

1410
00:59:09,550 --> 00:59:12,340
but he's definitely
a really good player.

1411
00:59:12,340 --> 00:59:14,050
Mathematics of
Poker by Bill Chen.

1412
00:59:14,050 --> 00:59:17,240
It's not that practical-- don't
tell Bill this when he comes

1413
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:18,880
Friday--

1414
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:22,030
it's theoretically very
interesting if you like math--

1415
00:59:22,030 --> 00:59:23,380
if you like game theory.

1416
00:59:23,380 --> 00:59:25,340
It's theoretically
very interesting.

1417
00:59:25,340 --> 00:59:28,890
Building a Bankroll is
a recent book that--

1418
00:59:28,890 --> 00:59:30,870
this year, he didn't
have any leftovers

1419
00:59:30,870 --> 00:59:33,140
to donate to our class
but, in the past,

1420
00:59:33,140 --> 00:59:36,070
he's supported our
class and donated

1421
00:59:36,070 --> 00:59:37,250
a lot of copies of the book.

1422
00:59:37,250 --> 00:59:42,007
And I think it's pretty up to
date, and it's for cash games,

1423
00:59:42,007 --> 00:59:43,090
so I think it's very good.

1424
00:59:47,290 --> 00:59:50,110
OK, so back to the four things
about poker that I think

1425
00:59:50,110 --> 00:59:52,450
makes it unique.

1426
00:59:52,450 --> 00:59:57,790
So the fourth point is this idea
of not being results-oriented.

1427
00:59:57,790 --> 00:59:59,760
So yeah, so we talked
about this a lot

1428
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:04,090
in the first class already--
this decision mentality, where

1429
01:00:04,090 --> 01:00:06,610
you need to care about
the decision you made,

1430
01:00:06,610 --> 01:00:08,080
not the result you got.

1431
01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:11,020
And I think this
actually is a barrier

1432
01:00:11,020 --> 01:00:14,210
to a lot of smart and
motivated people getting

1433
01:00:14,210 --> 01:00:18,910
into poker because it's
almost antithetical.

1434
01:00:18,910 --> 01:00:21,810
If you're a smart and motivated
person, you're used to like--

1435
01:00:21,810 --> 01:00:25,180
you study hard, and then you
get a good result on your tests,

1436
01:00:25,180 --> 01:00:27,090
right?

1437
01:00:27,090 --> 01:00:29,711
If you get a failing
grade in your test,

1438
01:00:29,711 --> 01:00:31,960
you're never going to be
able to go up to your parents

1439
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,145
and be like, oh, I
make good decisions,

1440
01:00:34,145 --> 01:00:36,520
but I just got really unlucky
and failed the test, right?

1441
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:37,769
No one's going to believe you.

1442
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:43,360
In poker, this can
happen all the time.

1443
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:48,514
So it is a bit antithetical
to sort of being motivated.

1444
01:00:48,514 --> 01:00:50,180
One thing poker players
like to laugh at

1445
01:00:50,180 --> 01:00:54,190
is, I don't know if you put
the word, results-oriented

1446
01:00:54,190 --> 01:00:56,650
on your resume?

1447
01:00:56,650 --> 01:00:59,080
I've seen seminars that
teach you to become

1448
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:01,630
"results-oriented," and
advertising this as being

1449
01:01:01,630 --> 01:01:03,070
a great thing.

1450
01:01:03,070 --> 01:01:04,630
You achieve results.

1451
01:01:04,630 --> 01:01:07,870
You work hard, make decisions,
and you achieve results.

1452
01:01:07,870 --> 01:01:09,670
But we always laugh at this.

1453
01:01:09,670 --> 01:01:11,140
Because results-oriented
is always

1454
01:01:11,140 --> 01:01:12,910
a negative term in poker.

1455
01:01:12,910 --> 01:01:16,060
If a poker player says
someone is results-oriented,

1456
01:01:16,060 --> 01:01:17,960
they don't respect
them very much.

1457
01:01:17,960 --> 01:01:20,510
But I've seen resume's
where people say,

1458
01:01:20,510 --> 01:01:22,300
I'm very results-oriented.

1459
01:01:28,340 --> 01:01:31,820
So a related thing is,
it's easy to underestimate

1460
01:01:31,820 --> 01:01:33,620
the variance in poker.

1461
01:01:33,620 --> 01:01:36,860
And this is a big
aspect, too, that goes on

1462
01:01:36,860 --> 01:01:39,080
with being results-oriented.

1463
01:01:39,080 --> 01:01:42,560
So this statistical
experiment involving making up

1464
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:44,390
sequences of coin flips--

1465
01:01:44,390 --> 01:01:47,350
I've heard of this
where a professor would

1466
01:01:47,350 --> 01:01:50,910
ask students to make up a
sequence of 200 coin flips.

1467
01:01:50,910 --> 01:01:53,160
Can we get half the
class to do this?

1468
01:01:53,160 --> 01:01:57,220
And then can we get the other
half to actually flip 200 coins

1469
01:01:57,220 --> 01:01:59,470
and write down like heads,
tails, heads, heads, heads,

1470
01:01:59,470 --> 01:02:01,130
tails?

1471
01:02:01,130 --> 01:02:04,190
And he could tell with
like 100% certainty

1472
01:02:04,190 --> 01:02:06,830
which ones are made up
and which ones were real.

1473
01:02:06,830 --> 01:02:08,750
And the way he did
this is basically

1474
01:02:08,750 --> 01:02:11,050
looking at which of the--

1475
01:02:11,050 --> 01:02:13,280
what's the longest
sequence of heads in a row

1476
01:02:13,280 --> 01:02:14,660
or tails in a row?

1477
01:02:14,660 --> 01:02:18,050
And basically, in reality,
if you flipped 200 coins--

1478
01:02:18,050 --> 01:02:19,490
I forget the exact
numbers, but I

1479
01:02:19,490 --> 01:02:22,280
think it's something
like, you're like 99%

1480
01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:25,760
to get at least like six
or seven of the same thing

1481
01:02:25,760 --> 01:02:28,790
in a row, whereas in
all the made-up ones

1482
01:02:28,790 --> 01:02:30,990
that people would be like,
oh if there was heads

1483
01:02:30,990 --> 01:02:33,290
seven times in a row, that
can't be random, right?

1484
01:02:33,290 --> 01:02:36,870
So we can't put
seven hands in a row.

1485
01:02:36,870 --> 01:02:40,730
So I think it's known that
it's easy to underestimate

1486
01:02:40,730 --> 01:02:43,190
how long you can get
unlucky looking for.

1487
01:02:43,190 --> 01:02:45,950
Like it's easy to think, I've
been unlucky the last three

1488
01:02:45,950 --> 01:02:48,730
times; that means I must
deserve to get lucky now.

1489
01:02:48,730 --> 01:02:51,890
But this is not
true, mathematically.

1490
01:02:51,890 --> 01:02:55,510
And it's just very
easy to underestimate

1491
01:02:55,510 --> 01:02:58,820
variance and underestimate
how likely it

1492
01:02:58,820 --> 01:03:01,340
is that you're just actually
going to lose 10 coin

1493
01:03:01,340 --> 01:03:02,360
flips in a row in poker.

1494
01:03:02,360 --> 01:03:06,410
It's going to happen to you,
and you're going to get tilted.

1495
01:03:06,410 --> 01:03:08,940
And it's very important
to control tilt.

1496
01:03:08,940 --> 01:03:11,120
And yeah, pretty much
every poker player

1497
01:03:11,120 --> 01:03:14,270
thinks they're unluckier
than mathematically possible.

1498
01:03:14,270 --> 01:03:17,390
I've definitely felt like this
in many parts of my career.

1499
01:03:17,390 --> 01:03:19,940
I still feel like
this sometimes now.

1500
01:03:19,940 --> 01:03:22,160
It's very easy to get this
feeling where you just,

1501
01:03:22,160 --> 01:03:23,490
how can it be possible?

1502
01:03:23,490 --> 01:03:25,710
How could I actually lose
20 coin flips in a row?

1503
01:03:25,710 --> 01:03:27,750
Well, it can happen.

1504
01:03:27,750 --> 01:03:32,174
And one of my poker players that
I was talking to, John Cannon,

1505
01:03:32,174 --> 01:03:34,340
he plays a lot of online
poker, and this is actually

1506
01:03:34,340 --> 01:03:36,450
a picture of his desk.

1507
01:03:36,450 --> 01:03:39,500
He, basically, was so angry
I think he smashed his mouse

1508
01:03:39,500 --> 01:03:41,260
and made a big hole in his desk.

1509
01:03:41,260 --> 01:03:43,670
So it can really frustrate you.

1510
01:03:48,440 --> 01:03:49,955
And I hate to say
this, but I think

1511
01:03:49,955 --> 01:03:53,400
even if you're
working very hard, you

1512
01:03:53,400 --> 01:03:55,696
do need some lucky big
scores along the way,

1513
01:03:55,696 --> 01:03:57,320
especially at the
start to get into it,

1514
01:03:57,320 --> 01:03:59,840
even if you're very smart
and working in the right way.

1515
01:03:59,840 --> 01:04:02,587
And this is also
antithetical and smart.

1516
01:04:02,587 --> 01:04:04,670
Antithetical to smart and
motivated people, right?

1517
01:04:04,670 --> 01:04:08,030
Because we want to believe
that if you work hard

1518
01:04:08,030 --> 01:04:10,400
and you're smart, then
you'll make it for sure.

1519
01:04:10,400 --> 01:04:13,580
But I wouldn't say
this is true in poker.

1520
01:04:13,580 --> 01:04:15,830
I mean, I think I'm willing
to admit that I think

1521
01:04:15,830 --> 01:04:18,140
I was very lucky at the start.

1522
01:04:18,140 --> 01:04:20,120
I had some big scores
at the start that

1523
01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:21,950
really drove my
interest in the game

1524
01:04:21,950 --> 01:04:25,280
and really propelled me
into professional poker.

1525
01:04:25,280 --> 01:04:28,510
And I think there probably,
in a parallel universe,

1526
01:04:28,510 --> 01:04:31,670
could be another copy of me
that did the exact same things

1527
01:04:31,670 --> 01:04:34,160
and just didn't get as
lucky as I did at the start

1528
01:04:34,160 --> 01:04:36,240
and just never got into poker.

1529
01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:39,940
So this fact that you do
still need to get lucky,

1530
01:04:39,940 --> 01:04:42,440
even if you make all the right
decisions [INAUDIBLE] make it

1531
01:04:42,440 --> 01:04:42,939
is--

1532
01:04:42,939 --> 01:04:47,424
It's sort of a tough
thing to swallow.

1533
01:04:47,424 --> 01:04:48,840
This is sort of a
different story,

1534
01:04:48,840 --> 01:04:52,700
but I'd like to argue that
that's sort of true in life,

1535
01:04:52,700 --> 01:04:54,260
too--

1536
01:04:54,260 --> 01:04:56,930
the fact that being
smart and working hard

1537
01:04:56,930 --> 01:05:00,950
doesn't guarantee
success by any means.

1538
01:05:00,950 --> 01:05:05,720
So although that's a
negative thing for poker,

1539
01:05:05,720 --> 01:05:08,930
I'd like to end with what
I call, "the joy of making

1540
01:05:08,930 --> 01:05:10,670
good decisions."

1541
01:05:10,670 --> 01:05:13,310
So even though not
everyone makes it in poker,

1542
01:05:13,310 --> 01:05:16,400
but poker players--

1543
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:18,864
we like to talk about sort
of, you're not really there.

1544
01:05:18,864 --> 01:05:21,530
You shouldn't be trying to think
about making money or whatever.

1545
01:05:21,530 --> 01:05:23,960
You're sort of just
there to enjoy the game,

1546
01:05:23,960 --> 01:05:26,480
and have an honest
opinion on your ability,

1547
01:05:26,480 --> 01:05:29,031
and calibrate your confidence.

1548
01:05:29,031 --> 01:05:31,280
I've told the Bill Gates/Doyle
Brunson story but yeah,

1549
01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:34,280
basically, Bill Gates, I
think, was a pretty good poker

1550
01:05:34,280 --> 01:05:36,970
player for quite a while.

1551
01:05:36,970 --> 01:05:37,970
And he would make money.

1552
01:05:37,970 --> 01:05:42,892
And clearly, it was not
his best way to make money.

1553
01:05:42,892 --> 01:05:45,350
He could probably just go to
his company and make like $500

1554
01:05:45,350 --> 01:05:48,480
a second or something like that.

1555
01:05:48,480 --> 01:05:50,720
But when asked about it,
Bill Gates would just say,

1556
01:05:50,720 --> 01:05:53,000
I love making good decisions.

1557
01:05:53,000 --> 01:05:55,420
I love thinking about this
game and making decisions.

1558
01:05:55,420 --> 01:05:58,040
And even though, clearly, the
money means nothing to me,

1559
01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:01,070
it's still important to
me, as a personal goal,

1560
01:06:01,070 --> 01:06:03,170
to succeed at this
game and make money,

1561
01:06:03,170 --> 01:06:05,460
even though it
doesn't mean anything.

1562
01:06:05,460 --> 01:06:07,910
So it's about this joy
of making good decisions.

1563
01:06:07,910 --> 01:06:10,670
And I think part of the
reason Bill Gates was

1564
01:06:10,670 --> 01:06:13,381
able to be quite good was
because the money meant nothing

1565
01:06:13,381 --> 01:06:13,880
to him.

1566
01:06:13,880 --> 01:06:15,504
He didn't really care
about his results

1567
01:06:15,504 --> 01:06:17,240
and how much he made
or lost, clearly.

1568
01:06:17,240 --> 01:06:21,720
He just focused on making
the best decisions.

1569
01:06:21,720 --> 01:06:26,030
And so it is true that there's
a decent amount of luck in poker

1570
01:06:26,030 --> 01:06:30,790
but, yes, I would argue, life is
luck, and you only live once--

1571
01:06:30,790 --> 01:06:32,630
there's all these
sayings but, overall,

1572
01:06:32,630 --> 01:06:35,720
the thing to keep in mind is,
like Jennifer Shahade talked

1573
01:06:35,720 --> 01:06:38,220
about this with the
"Goldilocks" video--

1574
01:06:38,220 --> 01:06:41,170
so you want to think of your
life and/or your poker career

1575
01:06:41,170 --> 01:06:44,840
or whatever as one long session
where you're just trying

1576
01:06:44,840 --> 01:06:46,530
to make the best decisions.

1577
01:06:46,530 --> 01:06:49,040
And even if you don't get
the best results today,

1578
01:06:49,040 --> 01:06:52,010
hope that you get better
results throughout the course

1579
01:06:52,010 --> 01:06:54,280
of your life.

1580
01:06:54,280 --> 01:06:57,380
So yeah, that's the
end of what I wanted

1581
01:06:57,380 --> 01:07:00,590
to say about the
general poker and what

1582
01:07:00,590 --> 01:07:02,180
I hope you take
away from this class

1583
01:07:02,180 --> 01:07:06,860
from a non-mathematical,
non-poker point of view.

1584
01:07:06,860 --> 01:07:09,410
I guess there is a bit
of time for questions.

1585
01:07:09,410 --> 01:07:11,600
There's a lot of things
I didn't talk about,

1586
01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:16,050
but I'm happy to
answer questions about.

1587
01:07:16,050 --> 01:07:20,070
Yeah, I'm happy to answer
any questions, now.

1588
01:07:20,070 --> 01:07:22,082
Yeah?

1589
01:07:22,082 --> 01:07:25,730
AUDIENCE: Now that there are no
longer any class tournaments,

1590
01:07:25,730 --> 01:07:28,710
where can I go to play to
get better and improve?

1591
01:07:32,740 --> 01:07:34,640
WILL MA: So there's
an MIT poker club,

1592
01:07:34,640 --> 01:07:37,000
and they run tournaments
on PokerStars

1593
01:07:37,000 --> 01:07:40,550
similar to the way
the class works.

1594
01:07:40,550 --> 01:07:42,920
The way you can get
into the poker club

1595
01:07:42,920 --> 01:07:46,250
is so [INAUDIBLE] is part of it.

1596
01:07:46,250 --> 01:07:48,200
She's like one of the execs.

1597
01:07:48,200 --> 01:07:49,550
Maybe you should ask her.

1598
01:07:49,550 --> 01:07:50,300
Send her an email.

1599
01:07:50,300 --> 01:07:51,487
I can ask her.

1600
01:07:51,487 --> 01:07:53,570
I'll ask her, and I'll
send something to the class

1601
01:07:53,570 --> 01:07:55,570
if you guys are interested
in continuing playing

1602
01:07:55,570 --> 01:07:57,820
poker on PokerStars and--

1603
01:07:57,820 --> 01:08:01,310
yeah, so there's
the MIT Poker Club.

1604
01:08:01,310 --> 01:08:03,590
And I know in the
past, sometimes

1605
01:08:03,590 --> 01:08:06,860
the classes continued
playing tournaments

1606
01:08:06,860 --> 01:08:08,362
after the class is over.

1607
01:08:08,362 --> 01:08:10,820
We would have like a tournament
every Saturday or something

1608
01:08:10,820 --> 01:08:13,150
for people to play,
but I don't know if--

1609
01:08:13,150 --> 01:08:14,278
they didn't last very long.

1610
01:08:14,278 --> 01:08:16,069
I think people quickly
lost interest in it.

1611
01:08:16,069 --> 01:08:18,020
But yeah, I think
just the poker club.

1612
01:08:18,020 --> 01:08:21,350
Actually, Martin, you're
in the Poker Club, right?

1613
01:08:21,350 --> 01:08:23,789
So maybe you can something
to answer that question.

1614
01:08:23,789 --> 01:08:26,957
AUDIENCE: So sometimes we have
[INAUDIBLE] games where people

1615
01:08:26,957 --> 01:08:29,840
can play like $0.25,
$0.50 [INAUDIBLE]..

1616
01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:34,880
So there's like a
million you can get on.

1617
01:08:34,880 --> 01:08:36,580
WILL MA: OK, I'll
find some information

1618
01:08:36,580 --> 01:08:37,930
from [INAUDIBLE] and Martin.

1619
01:08:37,930 --> 01:08:39,100
I'll send something
to the class,

1620
01:08:39,100 --> 01:08:40,641
and I'll give you
guys some pointers.

1621
01:08:43,404 --> 01:08:44,779
AUDIENCE: How do
you, personally,

1622
01:08:44,779 --> 01:08:46,583
deal with downswing?

1623
01:08:49,910 --> 01:08:51,950
WILL MA: Yeah, so
definitely, I've

1624
01:08:51,950 --> 01:08:54,340
gone through bad
downswings and times

1625
01:08:54,340 --> 01:08:56,620
where I really hated the game.

1626
01:08:56,620 --> 01:08:58,390
I think I mostly
just took a break.

1627
01:08:58,390 --> 01:09:01,060
So yeah, I mostly
just took a break.

1628
01:09:04,660 --> 01:09:08,894
My first couple of downswings
when I was first starting,

1629
01:09:08,894 --> 01:09:10,810
I just took a break from
the game for a while,

1630
01:09:10,810 --> 01:09:13,720
like a month or something,
and then came back.

1631
01:09:13,720 --> 01:09:14,859
That's sort of what I did.

1632
01:09:14,859 --> 01:09:19,454
Nowadays, I'd say like the
last four years, I've been--

1633
01:09:19,454 --> 01:09:21,370
I'd like to think I was
fairly good at dealing

1634
01:09:21,370 --> 01:09:22,300
with downswings.

1635
01:09:22,300 --> 01:09:24,580
I sort of went through
enough downswings

1636
01:09:24,580 --> 01:09:27,689
where I kind of was able to
just keep it together through it

1637
01:09:27,689 --> 01:09:28,439
for the most part.

1638
01:09:28,439 --> 01:09:30,290
Like maybe I'd
play slightly less,

1639
01:09:30,290 --> 01:09:32,158
but I wouldn't quit altogether.

1640
01:09:36,062 --> 01:09:39,405
AUDIENCE: So for small cash
games online, what kind of edge

1641
01:09:39,405 --> 01:09:40,864
do you think you have?

1642
01:09:40,864 --> 01:09:41,700
WILL MA: For small?

1643
01:09:41,700 --> 01:09:43,283
AUDIENCE: And then
what kind of edge--

1644
01:09:43,283 --> 01:09:46,050
what is your like, borderline
edge where it suddenly wouldn't

1645
01:09:46,050 --> 01:09:47,472
become worth it anymore?

1646
01:09:47,472 --> 01:09:52,390
WILL MA: Oh, so how much
edge do I think I have?

1647
01:09:52,390 --> 01:09:55,751
So in online cash games--

1648
01:09:55,751 --> 01:09:58,000
the thing is, I don't really
specialize in cash games,

1649
01:09:58,000 --> 01:10:00,320
so I never really play them.

1650
01:10:00,320 --> 01:10:02,230
So I'd say it's
probably very little.

1651
01:10:02,230 --> 01:10:04,420
I mean, I'm sure I can find
low enough stakes where

1652
01:10:04,420 --> 01:10:05,770
I'll have a significant edge--

1653
01:10:05,770 --> 01:10:07,394
AUDIENCE: Or even in
tournaments, then?

1654
01:10:07,394 --> 01:10:08,990
Online small stakes tournaments?

1655
01:10:08,990 --> 01:10:14,290
WILL MA: Yeah, yeah,
so in tournaments, I'd

1656
01:10:14,290 --> 01:10:19,960
say there's still a decent
edge, and I'll play it for--

1657
01:10:19,960 --> 01:10:22,855
but mostly, I'd I'll play
poker, mostly, for fun nowadays.

1658
01:10:25,810 --> 01:10:30,850
I rarely force myself to do
it for making money, I'd say.

1659
01:10:30,850 --> 01:10:32,380
Most of the time
I'm playing, I'm

1660
01:10:32,380 --> 01:10:33,838
still trying to
make good decisions

1661
01:10:33,838 --> 01:10:35,950
because I enjoy doing
that, but I'm not really

1662
01:10:35,950 --> 01:10:40,126
doing it for the power
degree or whatever.

1663
01:10:40,126 --> 01:10:42,815
AUDIENCE: So what about maybe
the best cash-game player

1664
01:10:42,815 --> 01:10:45,863
in the world, how much would
they make in about $0.25/$0.50

1665
01:10:45,863 --> 01:10:46,362
online?

1666
01:10:46,362 --> 01:10:50,620
WILL MA: Oh, $0.25/$0.50 online?

1667
01:10:50,620 --> 01:10:53,230
So I don't have a great sense
of this, but let me think.

1668
01:10:55,910 --> 01:11:00,190
So the thing is, the players who
are sort of considered the top

1669
01:11:00,190 --> 01:11:03,400
players in the world who
play like very high stakes--

1670
01:11:03,400 --> 01:11:06,820
like nosebleeds stakes with
like $100/$200 big blinds

1671
01:11:06,820 --> 01:11:07,950
or something--

1672
01:11:07,950 --> 01:11:10,090
it's sort of, the
variance is so high

1673
01:11:10,090 --> 01:11:12,290
that it's not really
accepted who's

1674
01:11:12,290 --> 01:11:14,590
the best because if it
was accepted, you know,

1675
01:11:14,590 --> 01:11:18,650
someone had a win rate
over someone else,

1676
01:11:18,650 --> 01:11:21,250
then the guy who was worse
just wouldn't be playing.

1677
01:11:21,250 --> 01:11:22,840
So the only reason
those games run

1678
01:11:22,840 --> 01:11:24,880
is because they all think
they have a win rate.

1679
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:27,250
So it's hard for me
to say the number

1680
01:11:27,250 --> 01:11:28,870
because I'm not
going to know better

1681
01:11:28,870 --> 01:11:31,312
than what they're true win
rates are against each other.

1682
01:11:31,312 --> 01:11:33,520
And they're all going to
tell me something different,

1683
01:11:33,520 --> 01:11:36,430
because they all think they're
beating the other guys.

1684
01:11:36,430 --> 01:11:38,460
As far as how much
a really top player

1685
01:11:38,460 --> 01:11:42,457
can win at a low-stakes
game, it's still

1686
01:11:42,457 --> 01:11:43,720
going to be very significant.

1687
01:11:43,720 --> 01:11:50,830
I think making something maybe
like, five or six big blinds

1688
01:11:50,830 --> 01:11:53,344
per 100.

1689
01:11:53,344 --> 01:11:55,260
Yeah, five or six big
blinds per 100, I think,

1690
01:11:55,260 --> 01:11:57,550
is maybe doable at a
reasonably low stakes--

1691
01:11:57,550 --> 01:11:59,230
if you're like one
of the very best.

1692
01:12:02,740 --> 01:12:03,570
It's quite a lot.

1693
01:12:03,570 --> 01:12:04,510
It's quite generous.

1694
01:12:04,510 --> 01:12:08,180
But let's say every 100 hands
you make five big blinds.

1695
01:12:08,180 --> 01:12:14,650
So let's say you
play $0.25/$0.50,

1696
01:12:14,650 --> 01:12:15,730
five big blinds is $250.

1697
01:12:15,730 --> 01:12:17,610
You make that every 100 hands.

1698
01:12:17,610 --> 01:12:22,660
If you play six tables, you
can get in about 100 hands

1699
01:12:22,660 --> 01:12:24,650
per hour, 120 hands per hour.

1700
01:12:24,650 --> 01:12:27,040
So that's 600 hands per hour.

1701
01:12:29,680 --> 01:12:32,680
So it's six times
$250; so it's like $15.

1702
01:12:32,680 --> 01:12:35,580
So it's not a lot, but I mean
those guys can play stakes way

1703
01:12:35,580 --> 01:12:38,950
higher than $0.25/$0.50 and
still have a slightly smaller

1704
01:12:38,950 --> 01:12:40,040
edge.

1705
01:12:40,040 --> 01:12:46,480
So if you imagine
they play 250/$5.

1706
01:12:46,480 --> 01:12:49,739
Then suddenly, you multiply,
then that'll give me about $10.

1707
01:12:49,739 --> 01:12:52,030
I mean you would be decreasing
it because they probably

1708
01:12:52,030 --> 01:12:53,990
wouldn't make five
big blinds per hour--

1709
01:12:53,990 --> 01:12:57,482
five big blinds per 100.

1710
01:12:57,482 --> 01:12:59,690
But I think those numbers
are ballpark correct, yeah.

1711
01:13:04,650 --> 01:13:05,642
All right, yeah?

1712
01:13:05,642 --> 01:13:08,122
AUDIENCE: What's a good
for playing at a casino,

1713
01:13:08,122 --> 01:13:09,479
like exploiting people?

1714
01:13:09,479 --> 01:13:11,770
WILL MA: What's a good strategy
for playing at a casino

1715
01:13:11,770 --> 01:13:12,686
and exploiting people?

1716
01:13:19,270 --> 01:13:22,560
One general thing that's
going to do is, you go there--

1717
01:13:22,560 --> 01:13:27,250
you sleep at night, and you go
there at like 7:00 AM and play

1718
01:13:27,250 --> 01:13:30,003
against people who have
been tilted and angry for--

1719
01:13:30,003 --> 01:13:30,950
[LAUGHTER]

1720
01:13:30,950 --> 01:13:33,360
And you just woke up
at 7 AM in the morning.

1721
01:13:33,360 --> 01:13:36,730
And you're in such a good mood,
and they're all in a bad mood,

1722
01:13:36,730 --> 01:13:39,310
and you can win a lot of money.

1723
01:13:39,310 --> 01:13:42,700
In terms of specific
strategy, I think

1724
01:13:42,700 --> 01:13:44,650
it depends a lot on the player.

1725
01:13:44,650 --> 01:13:48,130
I think, in general, playing
tight is pretty good.

1726
01:13:48,130 --> 01:13:49,660
At least I'd say
I consider myself,

1727
01:13:49,660 --> 01:13:51,340
in general, a
tight player, and I

1728
01:13:51,340 --> 01:13:54,160
think a decent
amount of money can

1729
01:13:54,160 --> 01:13:56,470
be made at casinos against
recreational players

1730
01:13:56,470 --> 01:13:58,990
just by them getting bored.

1731
01:13:58,990 --> 01:14:01,950
Like at a nine-headed table,
you're only paying the blinds--

1732
01:14:01,950 --> 01:14:04,570
1 and 1/2 blinds
every nine hands.

1733
01:14:04,570 --> 01:14:06,220
You can easily
get away with only

1734
01:14:06,220 --> 01:14:09,380
playing like pocket nines
plus, ace-queen plus.

1735
01:14:09,380 --> 01:14:13,104
I mean, that's extreme, but
they'll probably still call you

1736
01:14:13,104 --> 01:14:14,020
because they're bored.

1737
01:14:14,020 --> 01:14:16,080
They're not going to
think like, this guy's--

1738
01:14:16,080 --> 01:14:17,390
I'm going to just fold--

1739
01:14:17,390 --> 01:14:19,120
so one disadvantage
of that strategy

1740
01:14:19,120 --> 01:14:20,680
is, they're just always
going to fold to you.

1741
01:14:20,680 --> 01:14:22,805
But in practice, I don't
think that's what happens.

1742
01:14:22,805 --> 01:14:26,650
So I think, in
general, playing tight

1743
01:14:26,650 --> 01:14:29,660
will always be a pretty
good strategy at casinos

1744
01:14:29,660 --> 01:14:33,525
against recreational players.

1745
01:14:33,525 --> 01:14:35,004
AUDIENCE: Yeah?

1746
01:14:35,004 --> 01:14:39,400
Do you have any
advice for avoiding

1747
01:14:39,400 --> 01:14:46,160
this pitfall of thinking you're
good and you're not actually?

1748
01:14:46,160 --> 01:14:48,790
WILL MA: Not really, because
I think it's happened to me

1749
01:14:48,790 --> 01:14:50,140
a lot of times.

1750
01:14:54,490 --> 01:14:59,055
Yeah, I think it really is
hard to judge, especially

1751
01:14:59,055 --> 01:14:59,680
in tournaments.

1752
01:14:59,680 --> 01:15:01,450
In cash games, it's
slightly easier

1753
01:15:01,450 --> 01:15:04,630
to judge because you can just
look at your data points,

1754
01:15:04,630 --> 01:15:06,580
and it'll converge faster.

1755
01:15:06,580 --> 01:15:09,220
In tournaments, the variance
is so high you can't really

1756
01:15:09,220 --> 01:15:10,654
use your tournament results.

1757
01:15:10,654 --> 01:15:12,820
I think the most important
thing, for me personally,

1758
01:15:12,820 --> 01:15:17,050
was just talking to players and
having very honest friends who

1759
01:15:17,050 --> 01:15:20,110
would tell me if they thought
I was worse than someone else

1760
01:15:20,110 --> 01:15:21,570
and tell them not to play them.

1761
01:15:21,570 --> 01:15:23,320
And I think that's
probably the thing that

1762
01:15:23,320 --> 01:15:26,410
benefited me the most-- just
being able to talk to players

1763
01:15:26,410 --> 01:15:29,320
better than me or at
a similar level to me

1764
01:15:29,320 --> 01:15:33,070
and just getting their opinion
from them talking to me.

1765
01:15:33,070 --> 01:15:36,170
If they think I'm not good
enough, I want them to tell me.

1766
01:15:36,170 --> 01:15:39,940
And I think that's one of the
most important things is just

1767
01:15:39,940 --> 01:15:44,714
getting good feedback from your
friends and honest feedback.

1768
01:15:44,714 --> 01:15:45,540
Yeah?

1769
01:15:45,540 --> 01:15:48,760
AUDIENCE: Since we
can't play online here,

1770
01:15:48,760 --> 01:15:51,937
and we can't do it at the
casino like every weekend--

1771
01:15:51,937 --> 01:15:54,270
so we can't play for money--
what's some good motivation

1772
01:15:54,270 --> 01:15:57,817
to keep the Saturday game?

1773
01:15:57,817 --> 01:15:59,650
Is this like poker
mentality, and these kids

1774
01:15:59,650 --> 01:16:02,100
will have development
in whatever they

1775
01:16:02,100 --> 01:16:04,330
like [INAUDIBLE] jobs?

1776
01:16:04,330 --> 01:16:06,080
WILL MA: OK, so I'll
address a few things.

1777
01:16:06,080 --> 01:16:08,150
So one thing that I didn't
really formally announce--

1778
01:16:08,150 --> 01:16:09,733
but yeah, so one
thing you pointed out

1779
01:16:09,733 --> 01:16:11,800
is, playing online
poker for money

1780
01:16:11,800 --> 01:16:13,750
is illegal in Massachusetts.

1781
01:16:19,720 --> 01:16:22,210
The police can't
come arrest you,

1782
01:16:22,210 --> 01:16:25,135
but the website will
take all your money

1783
01:16:25,135 --> 01:16:27,260
if they find out you're
playing from Massachusetts.

1784
01:16:27,260 --> 01:16:30,030
But I don't believe it's
written in Massachusetts

1785
01:16:30,030 --> 01:16:31,650
law or something.

1786
01:16:31,650 --> 01:16:34,050
To my knowledge, the
police can't arrest you.

1787
01:16:34,050 --> 01:16:36,880
But yeah, so the question
was, if we can't play online,

1788
01:16:36,880 --> 01:16:38,380
what can we do?

1789
01:16:38,380 --> 01:16:41,600
So I think it is legal
in New Jersey and Nevada.

1790
01:16:41,600 --> 01:16:43,640
So you can move to
New Jersey or Nevada.

1791
01:16:46,300 --> 01:16:48,770
OK, yeah, so if you don't
want to go to the casino

1792
01:16:48,770 --> 01:16:51,506
every weekend, so
what else can you do?

1793
01:16:51,506 --> 01:16:53,380
OK, so what's the
motivation to keep playing?

1794
01:16:53,380 --> 01:16:55,480
So I think I've
tried in this class

1795
01:16:55,480 --> 01:16:58,510
to give examples
of where I think

1796
01:16:58,510 --> 01:17:05,410
poker is very useful, just in
terms of how poker is related

1797
01:17:05,410 --> 01:17:09,190
to nonpoker stuff, like
calibrating your confidence,

1798
01:17:09,190 --> 01:17:11,680
figuring out what your biases
are, and stuff like that.

1799
01:17:11,680 --> 01:17:13,170
And I also think
it's a fun game.

1800
01:17:13,170 --> 01:17:15,120
It's a very fun game.

1801
01:17:15,120 --> 01:17:16,660
It's mathematically interesting.

1802
01:17:16,660 --> 01:17:20,100
But yeah, I mean, if you don't
enjoy playing the game much,

1803
01:17:20,100 --> 01:17:23,100
and sense you can't really
make money playing it

1804
01:17:23,100 --> 01:17:25,536
in Massachusetts, yeah, then,
if both of those are true,

1805
01:17:25,536 --> 01:17:26,910
then there's not
that much reason

1806
01:17:26,910 --> 01:17:28,600
to play it if you
don't enjoy it.

1807
01:17:28,600 --> 01:17:30,183
I think that's just
the biggest thing.

1808
01:17:30,183 --> 01:17:32,720
If you enjoy it and you
enjoy the decision-making,

1809
01:17:32,720 --> 01:17:35,843
I think it's very fun, and
it's also very good for you.

1810
01:17:35,843 --> 01:17:37,322
AUDIENCE: Thank you.

1811
01:17:40,280 --> 01:17:43,367
WILL MA: All right, cool.

1812
01:17:43,367 --> 01:17:44,950
Yeah, so if there's
no more questions,

1813
01:17:44,950 --> 01:17:50,230
then I guess we'll call
it here, and then Friday

1814
01:17:50,230 --> 01:17:51,650
will be the last class.

1815
01:17:51,650 --> 01:17:53,483
There's two more nights
of tournaments left.

1816
01:17:53,483 --> 01:17:55,960
And yeah, I'm excited for
Friday for Bill's lecture

1817
01:17:55,960 --> 01:17:58,310
and to hand out the prizes.